WSOP Day 4: "Official" News, Results, and Discussion

[idrinkcoors]

According to my math based on Cardplayer stats, the average stack at the final table, (9 handed), will be 6.243 million. Fossilman at just over 1 million still has alot of players to work through to get a spot there. Doubling up 3 times will do it, but only one other player has over a million at this point.

[TylerD]

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I agree it would be quite an accomplishment, however say you were in his shoes as the chip leader with 185 left, wouldn't you be mightily upset with yourself if you didn't at least get within striking distance of the final table?

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I might be upset, but I wouldn't expect to make it.

[JerseyTom]

Anyone know what the best finish by a defending champ is since Chan won back-to-back in 87-88 (didn't he finish extremely well in '89)?


Thanks,

Tom

[Snoh84]

Phil Ivey sitting next to Mattusow with CK Hua also at the table, should be very interesting to watch

[MyMindIsGoing]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone know what the best finish by a defending champ is since Chan won back-to-back in 87-88 (didn't he finish extremely well in '89)?


Thanks,

Tom

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes second to Helmuth.

[Laomedon]

I suppose I wasn't all that clear. I understand the level of difficulty involved assuming an average final table stack of ~6 million, what I mean is from a psychological standpoint everyone in Raymer's position right now would be gearing up for the final table. As the chip leader he is obviously in the best position out of the 184 other players to make it, right? It doesn't seem farfetched to assume that failure to make it even moderately close to the final table would be perceived (at least in his own mind) as a wasted effort.

[BlackRain]

I think Raymer himself put his odds at making the final table at around 4 to 1 against in a cardplayer interview last night.

[DesD]

Hi Guys,

I'm down at the Rio and sharing information in these posts with a lot of the spectators and players.

Chip counts are always very useful and regular updates would be appreciated. There is very little info on the floor!!

Greg was in amazing form yesterday and I would be very surprised if he isn't at the feature table today.

I'm entering the $1k NL event so won't be able to sweat the ME as much today...I hope anyway...;0)

Cheers,

DesD.

[autobet]

sounds about right

[Solitare]

Lets say Raymer has 1M against a total chip count of 65M. One might say that Raymer has a 1/65 chance of winning, which is 1.54%.

So his odds of NOT winning are 98.46%. One could then estimate his odds of not getting to final table as 0.9846^9, which is 86.96%. So by this back of the envelope calculation, Raymer has around a 15% chance of making the final table.

But lets give Greg the benefit of the doubt. Lets say he's a pretty good player and the field still has a bunch of internet goofballs in it. Lets double his chance of winning used above from 1.5% to 3.0%. So his chance of not finishing first would be 97%. His chance of not making the final table would be 0.97^9=0.76. Or 25% to make the final table.

How does that sound? 3% to win, 25% to make the final table?