Fun for everyone (hand reading, outs counting, play-making)

[deepsquat]

Whats so bad about a flop raise?

Most weaktight players will autobet JJ or QQ on this flop, he isnt going to pay us off on the turn if he doesnt have TP beaten so why not get our money in now + we have the chance to thin the field.

Is this bad thinking?

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats so bad about a flop raise?

Most weaktight players will autobet JJ or QQ on this flop, he isnt going to pay us off on the turn if he doesnt have TP beaten so why not get our money in now + we have the chance to thin the field.

Is this bad thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the weak/tighties that I've seen will cry when they see this flop with the overcard to their QQ or JJ and check-call to the river, hoping to hit their set while saying to themselves that next time they're just gonna limp with these hands cause an overcard always drops and fecks them.

I don't mind a flop raise, if you can fold to a 3 bet from the weak tightie.

[PJM1206]

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, T.
Hero raises, MP calls, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 2, 7, K (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, MP folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero...

For the newbies:

1) What range of hands does SB have?
AKs AK AQs Big pair AA-JJ

2) How many outs do you think I have on average?
I give you 2 outs I discount 1K and 1 T ( if SB has AK you K wont help and If T diamonds hits he may have flush AKs AQs) so 2 outs

3) What is the right play based on this information?

I fold

Here's some more fun things to consider for the slightly more advanced:

4) What does BB hold?

For him to be calling I would think he is on flush draw Diamnond Diamond

5) How do BB's holdings affect my outs?
Reduces one of your T outs

6) What is the right play based on the extra information?

Fold

And one that I hope will lead to a good discussion (DON'T BE RESULTS ORIENTED! USE ONLY THE INFORMATION BEFORE MY FLOP ACTION!):

7) What are some alternate lines from the flop? Include some discussion about the resulting turn play.

[McGahee]

Sure looks to me like you're drawing slim.
SB has AA/KK/AK
I'm tempted to put BB on KQ but we're running out of K's so he may very well have a flush draw on this uncoordinated board. I don't think it matters what BB has because either way 1 of your outs is toast - there's either 1 less K in the deck or the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is no good for you. Either way the very best case scenerio for you is SB having AA and you having 4 clean outs - but I think it's more likely you have less than that.
I'd make a loose call closing the action getting 12.5:1 and fold the river UI. I don't have a problem with folding either because your implied odds aren't great and I don't know how confidently you can raise anything outside of the two non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T's if you hit on the river.

[imported_The Vibesman]

1: From your read and the action, I would say SB has AK, KK or AA. If he may not raise TT preflop, he probably needs a really good hand to 3bet, and to 3bet that flop.
2: Dead against KK, 3 outs against AK, 5 against AA. I guess I'd call it 3 on average.
3: Thin line between fold and call. I think we're pretty far behind, but the pot's big enough for me to take one off. BB's hand kind of changes that.
4. BB likely has a flush draw, killing one of your T outs. There is an outside chance he has a straight draw that kills all of your T outs, but if you think he would have capped preflop w/ AQ then that leaves Q9, just one combo. Could be AQ, but if he is very loose preflop it could be any two suited out of the BB. I suppose with a player like this he could be calling down with a middle pocket pair or something like that, but I am going on the assumption that the 10d isn't worth that much.
6. Still like a fold here. I think we're drawing to around a 2 outer on average and a 4 outer best-case. I don't think we have enough in implied odds to make up the difference if we make the hand. Heads up vs. SB, same pot size, the few extra outs might make it worthwhile.
Closing the action and being in position on the river, though, I don't think it would be a huge mistake to see the river. It's probably a mistake of some kind though. But I hate to drop pots over 10bb. I'd call and hate myself.
7. I like your line on the flop a lot because it buys you the button and allows you to narrow down SB's range of hands. If he had JJ or QQ he would probably back down to the flop raise. I don't think you can fold on the flop, because even assuming the # of outs I gave before, I think you have enough to take one off here, unless you commit yourself to calling the turn too. Just calling and closing the action would make it an easy fold on the turn, but then again we wouldn't know as much about SB's hand either.

[Entity]

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[ QUOTE ]
timid weak-tight player

[/ QUOTE ]

hey aaron. given your read i dont like a raise on the flop.
i would either call call call or call call raise/fold. i dont like it when timid players bet into me because i usually lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thinking at the time was he could have AA-JJ or AK here. A quick count gives 12 hands that I lead, 21 hands that I chase. I can play donkey in the middle and suck extra bets out of him those times when I'm chasing. (I almost certainly am not in last place right now.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I messed up on my math, and you're correct -- there are 8 combos of AK which weights this in favor of a call. Like I said earlier, if your "weakie" read allows for a flop bet with QQ or JJ, then everything changes, but in that event, I don't think your read is accurate.

Situations like this come up often and I think too many people raise to suck bets out of people in the middle when they are unlikely to have the best hand. The added disadvantage of this is putting money in when you're drawing slim and bloating the pot to a level where you're likely to see the river. It's a decision that compounds your other decisions, especially for those of you who "call because the pot is big."

I tend to play more cautiously in these spots, and try to develop my read further if there's some inclination that he "could be betting" QQ/JJ/TT on flops like this.

Rob

[xxxx5847]

(taking a shot before reading other's replies)

Even a timid SB reasonably discounts Hero holding KK b/c Hero didn't cap PF. So his confidence can be attributable to AA, AK, or KK. Also, given Hero's prior looseness & SB's position, SB would feel confident 3-betting KQs PF. So, 6 AA's but 8 AK's, 2 KQs's, 1 KK for SB.

BB has called down weak hands before. However, he knows tight SB has huge cards, so that's not happening here. So, is BB waiting on a river Diamond or is he slow-playing the fold-happy SB? (BB calling between SB and Hero prevents SB from having to call two cold.) There are more AA combos than diamonds that BB could hold. Would BB cold-call 2 w anything less than, say, AQ,AJ,AT,QJ? Maybe add JT & A9 and diamonds are still just an equal possibility with AA. However, the turn reveals straight & 2-pair possibilities for Hero, making it unlikely that BB would call over.

So we look for a non-diamond T. It being twice as likely that SB has AK/KK/KQ than AA, we don't invest in rivered a K. Two outs. Fold.

[Edit:] BB most likely holds Ad, so that further increases the probability that SB holds some K combo instead of AA.

[Further edit:] The possibility, from BB's perspective, that SB holds KK makes me doubt my previous speculation on BB slow-playing AA.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Situations like this come up often and I think too many people raise to suck bets out of people in the middle when they are unlikely to have the best hand. The added disadvantage of this is putting money in when you're drawing slim and bloating the pot to a level where you're likely to see the river. It's a decision that compounds your other decisions, especially for those of you who "call because the pot is big."

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. After he 3-bet me, I realized the error (why is it always after?), but was somewhat relieved that donkey in the middle played along with us and didn't make the raise worse by folding for two more. The (very confident) read says that timid villain is not betting QQ-JJ on the turn, which means I will know exactly where I stand after the 1 SB flop call. The same read also tells me I'm really in trouble when he 3-bets me and I just plopped an extra BB into the pot when I have the worst of it. With the smaller pot, it's an easy muck on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I messed up on my math, and you're correct -- there are 8 combos of AK which weights this in favor of a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh... You scared me into disbelieving myself last night.

But I still mucked it on the turn. I figured that donkey in the middle has one of my outs (either he's stubbornly sitting on a king or he's on the diamond draw -- so either a king out is missing or my Td out is missing). So I'm looking at 4 outs against AA (6), 2 outs against AK (8), and none against KK. On average, it's somewhere just below 3 outs (calculator says 2.7 outs).

I probably stand to pick up a couple bets if I hit my outs, but it could be ugly for me. The problem is I don't know how good my king outs are (all one, two, or three of them). If villain has AA, then I'm happy, but he may also have AK to make me unhappy. I can't really raise the river with confidence because that king is more likely bad than good. So I only stand to pick up two extra bets if the king comes. If the ten comes, I have a better condition and might win three or four bets.

Getting about 12:1 now, and maybe only 14:1 with implied, this tipped the scale for me to just let it go. I really slowed myself down mentally for this one, thinking for a good amount of the time they give you to think. I should have slowed down (my brain and my play) on the flop.

[xxxx5847]

(after reading others' comments)

I can't believe I forgot about 22 or 77 for BB. That was dumb.

The only comment I have on others' posts is that I don't see BB capping AQs/AJs PF after timid-tight SB's 3-bet, so I include those hands in BB's range.

[IIAce]

I haven't read the other posts because I want to see how I do compared to what other guys said. Based only on your reads, I'd say:
1. SB has AA/KK
2. I think you're drawing dead here...a king will make your hand stronger but you will probably be beaten by the BB's KQ or w/e or the SB's quad kings. A ten on the river will put a straight possibility on the board.
3. I'd say fold.

1. I think the BB holds KQos/A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/AKos.
2. The BB is really holding what I thought he was then you've got no outs against him and the SB...you're drawing dead pretty much.
3. Fold

Ok that's what I think. I'll go read what the other guys said now to see how my guesses compare to others.