Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
this gives you a huge advantage in terms of the FTP; that is you will be able to induce your opponents to play in ways that they would not if they actually "saw" your hole cards and thus you will gain. i am no statistical wizard, and more importantly don't have the software to run the probabilties but i would imagine a winrate increase would be dependent upon your skill(which you say is excellent)and as long as your hole cards are not QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you are likely playing most hands; i would guesstimate a winrate of about, well if your VPIP was 17-20 i would guess it would be 80-85 now. around 40 hands an hour would increase from 20.00 to maybe 160.00 an hour. i figure 8x(seeing about 4x as many flops, but PROFIT should be higher for excellent player due to this new advantage).

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay... fine, except the 8x is coming out of nowhere. Think about how you'd play each hand after the flop and how this knowledge benefits you. Your opponent is not just going to make more mistakes, he is going to be making HUGE errors like capping every street when he's drawing dead, while laughing at you thinking you hold QdJd. You've got twice as many cards to hit on the flop, because anything that hits QdJd gives you a bluffing opportunity that succeeds the vast majority of the time. Your win rate is going to be much, much higher than 8BB/hour.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
"if this is the case, then almost all hands except QJ have value >0 and could be played from any position assuming normal limit buyin stacks (say 50BB's right?)."

74o is 74o, no matter how deceptive you are. The only exception is if you hit a miracle 3-5-6 flop, but you shouldn't be seeing a flop, in any event, with 74o.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's definitely not true! if you hit your virtuell QJ your opponents are going to fold if they can't beat the hand they assume you have.
i do agree with the first answer, that any hand but QdJd is probably playable.
but i want to add that hands that have little in common with the QdJd are much stronger than others, for example JcTc is much better than JdTd since anyone will fold if you make the diamond-flush.

but i wonder what will happen when one of the other players holds one of the cards that he suspects you to have. hope he wont shoot you [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[catlover]

I am going to answer my own questions by assuming that:

(1) "All players" does not include me. I know my own hole cards.

(2) I am aware of what the hypnotist has done. I know the other players think I have QJ of diamonds.

(3) QJ of diamonds have in fact been removed from the deck. So other players will not be jolted back to reality by noticing either of these cards in their hand or on the board.

Under these assumptions, I will see every single flop unless I hold QJ. I will fold any offsuit QJ preflop. Suited QJ (which won't be diamonds as they have been removed from the deck) is close. If I make a pair, straight, etc, my opponents will always play correctly against me. But if I make a flush, I can probably get into a raising war with someone on the end and make four big bets. The other thing is, if I have position, sometimes my opponents will trap and I can check behind. For these reason, I think it's probably worth playing QJs when in good position, but it's close. Out of position it's definitely a fold.

I think I will just about never fold the flop, either. Just to pick a random example, suppose my hand is

2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and the flop is

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

This is easily worth calling maximum bets and raises on the flop. I have a gutshot, which if I hit it will win me a large number of big bets as everyone will assume I have nothing. I also have a "virtual" gutshot -- if a king comes, everyone will fold. So my hand is actually better than a "normal" open ended straight draw. So I have 8 outs. Four of them will not get paid off at all (the kings), but the other four will get paid off bigtime (the threes).

On top of that, I also have a backdoor diamond draw (which will not get paid off if I hit it, but will win me the pot). And I have my real pair outs (the 2s and the 4s), which are probably no good most of the time but will occasionally win. And I have my "virtual" pair outs (the queens and the jacks), which will allow me to bluff the river. This will win unless somebody has an ace.

What is my win rate under these conditions? To take a flying guess, probably somewhere in the range of 1.5 to 3 big bets per hand. Because when I get a winner, I will typpically win at least four extra big bets on the river. And when I have a loser, I will frequently steal it. I am probably winning about twice my fair share of hands, and many of my pots will be very large.

[DougOzzzz]

the example doesn't seem too random. There are going to be times when the flop completely misses your hand, and QdJd. Also, what happens if the flop comes with 2 diamonds but otherwise doesn't help you? Obviously, if you stay in, you'll win the pot if a diamond comes (unless your opp can beat your flush), but you won't win any extra bets, and if he is smart, he'll make you pay on the flop and on the turn. Your pot odds need to be very good to call on a flop like this.

Still, you're much closer than everyone who is saying <0.3BB/hand. 1.5BB/hand might be right... I think 3BB is probably too high. Keep in mind, you're going to lose some of the big pots too.

[SheetWise]

I would see the flop on any hand that didn't hold a Q or J. Those hands would have a very limited value.

SheetWise

[catlover]

The more I think about this, the more I think I can abuse my opponents. I think I should be happy to cap it preflop with every hand except QJ. This is because I am about twice as likely as my opponents to win each pot. Actually more than twice as likely, because QJs is an above average hand. For their part, my opponents will also be willing to cap it preflop because they think they have the advantage of knowing my hole cards.

Incidentally, my win rate will be heavily influenced by the cap It needs to be specified whether it is a bet and three raises or a bet and four raises.

Imagine the times when I flop a big hand. Say, two pair or trips. And my opponents think I am betting and raising with nothing.

But my biggest advantage is on the river. My prior aggression will have built a big pot, which I will frequently be able to steal. Meanwhile, my legitimate winners will get capped as long as my opponent can beat QJ of diamonds.

[catlover]

Another thing: my ability to read my opponents' hands will be greatly helped by the fact that I know what they think I have.

[AaronBrown]

Wasn't there a Twilight Zone episode about this? The guy sells his soul to the devil to get this edge, and then gets dealt hole cards of QJ of diamonds on every hand for eternity?

[BettyBoopAA]

"The more I think about this, the more I think I can abuse my opponents. I think I should be happy to cap it preflop with every hand except QJ. This is because I am about twice as likely as my opponents to win each pot. Actually more than twice as likely, because QJs is an above average hand. For their part, my opponents will also be willing to cap it preflop because they think they have the advantage of knowing my hole cards"

Incidentally, my win rate will be heavily influenced by the cap It needs to be specified whether it is a bet and three raises or a bet and four raises.

Imagine the times when I flop a big hand. Say, two pair or trips. And my opponents think I am betting and raising with nothing.

But my biggest advantage is on the river. My prior aggression will have built a big pot, which I will frequently be able to steal. Meanwhile, my legitimate winners will get capped as long as my opponent can beat QJ of diamonds."


I think many overestimate the benefits and don't see the other side of the table. I think you have QJ, I raise with a hand better than QJ and I bet every flop that misses QJs or is scary to QJ (A high, K high flops, every flop not Q or J high). My starting hand is always strong and you will have a difficult decision if you play every hand.

I think you play any A, K, pair, connecters and any suited hand not diamonds. I would guess your advantage at 2-3BB/hr.
You win more on your better hands but you lose some value by the other playes constant betting at boards that don't help you or are marginal.

[PokerDork]

I was wondering... Are my opponents going to make what would be the proper play (per the fundamental theorem of poker) assuming I had the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or are they going to make math errors and therefore draw to two pair, gutshot straight draws, etc. with insufficient odds? Also, should I assume that opponents will always play back hard when a flop looks unfavorable to the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? I understand that the meaning of "typical" game would indicate that there are some yes's and some no's to both questions, but if all 9 opponents played as if the were 100% sure of my hand, they would have to play against me fairly similarly. Also, is it safe so assume that the other players don't know that everyone "knows" my hand?