TAG vs TAG, 22 vs JJ

DavidC · #1 07-11-2005, 05:37 AM

Results are included, and thoughts. Any critiques are welcome!

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MP1 is LPP, MP2 is TAA.

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks...

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I'm calling a river bet by villain. I put him on an ace with some broadway card. I think he's raising the flop due to the possibility of getting a free card the possibility that I"m bluffing. I also feel that he's going to be betting the river with most of his unimproved ace hands.

I could be incorrect about him betting. He may choose not to bluff, knowing that I'm a TAG and that I'm aware of pot-size and therefore must call. He also could have a better hand than myself.

Comments on this play?

--Dave.

Oh, there is a serious problem with my play... (other than the chance that I'm way behind, of course).

The LPP here, who shows down a fair bit, may choose to stick around here with overcards, and really screw my chances of winning a showdown. I got lucky in this case, but what do you think the longer-term EV is in this play?

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Also, on the river, I don't think he will be raising with anything other than AA, KK, or AK. I also don't think he'll call with AJo. I don't think I can fold to him after I check. Therefore I think I will gain whatever his chance is of bluffing in EV by check-calling here. However, for meta-game purposes it may be best to bet out on this river regardless. I'm still showing a fair amount of strength, and he may not choose to raise me with AK any more, due to the strength. He may feel badly about making the mistake of calling with the best hand and it could tilt him / encourage him to leave the table. This conceals my cards in the event that he does have AJ: he doesn't know that I'm capable of making a play like this in the future. I would lose the bluffing equity from the AJo hands, but gain considerably on other hands in the future vs the same opponent or other observant opponents at the table.

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Results: Villain checks and shows JJ.

Unless he's really afraid of the checkraise, he should be betting here, because my reluctance to bet on the K shows that I'm afraid of single-pair hands. Thus, his JJ only loses to QQ and AA in my hand.

Alternatively I could have been blasting with AK, and now be going for the checkraise, and have just called AK OOP in the BB.

ClaytonN · #2 07-11-2005, 05:43 AM

If this is your I've-got-mad-balls line, then I would much prefer you checkraise the turn and flatcall the flop.

silkyslim · #3 07-11-2005, 05:44 AM

is his turn call consistent with big UI ace?

DavidC · #4 07-11-2005, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If this is your I've-got-mad-balls line, then I would much prefer you checkraise the turn and flatcall the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks too much like a bluff.

DavidC · #5 07-11-2005, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is his turn call consistent with big UI ace?

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I don't know... the pot's getting pretty big. You're right though, most tags would drop on the turn. Good point!

fflyer · #6 07-11-2005, 05:50 AM

I prefer to try for a check raise on the flop in the hope of driving out MP1 if he is thinking of sticking around with overcards. The call on the turn by TAG is a bit strange. If he had a big pair, this would be the time for him to tell you. with an UI ace he should fold. Could he have Ax with two clubs or something similar? Check calling the river is OK. What is he calling with that you can beat if you bet out?

DavidC · #7 07-11-2005, 05:58 AM

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What is he calling with that you can beat if you bet out?

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Nothing.

DavidC · #8 07-11-2005, 06:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer to try for a check raise on the flop in the hope of driving out MP1 if he is thinking of sticking around with overcards.

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This seems to be a pretty good way to go...

hicherbie · #9 07-11-2005, 09:24 AM

id check raise the flop if thats what you thought. i think a lot of people would raise for a free card, but not as many will 3-bet for one.

DeathDonkey · #10 07-11-2005, 10:57 AM

This is ok but I'd prefer a flop checkraise. Check/fold the river though. He won't bluff in this spot.

-DeathDonkey