How much THEORETICAL money did I lose here? - Page 4

Nightwish · #31 07-09-2005, 04:49 AM

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Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop:3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB raises, JimmyV 3-bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, JimmyV bets, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, JimmyV checks, MP2 checks.

River: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, JimmyV raises, MP2 folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results below:
SB has 9d 9s (three of a kind, nines).
JimmyV has Qh Qd (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: BB wins 11.50 BB.

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This is horrible. Truly awful turn check.

Nightwish · #32 07-09-2005, 04:54 AM

You seem to be arguing that a 49/24 player is anything but a complete moron. OK, let me put it to you this way. What's your PFR? Likely somewhere between 9 and 12. This guy raises twice as many hands as you. If this still doesn't sink in, do the following. Enumerate all the hands you would raise with preflop in different positions. Now try to double that number and see what kind of crappy hands you'll be forced to put in there.

The bottom line is that this particular opponent has the stats of a retarded monkey on crack. Trying to put him on a specific hand is pointless. Sure, you'll lose to KQ here from time to time. But the vast majority of the time he'll happily pay you off with bottom pair or worse.

JimmyV · #33 07-09-2005, 12:06 PM

A fair point about retarded 49% VPIP players. But let's keep in mind that my n was still kind of small -- he's not unlikely to be a 31% or some such on a wave of good starting hands.

To this hour no one has named a hand besides bottom pair or mid pocket pair that is at all likely to pay off turn and river given how the flop went. Not all horrible players are alike and this guy isn't certain to be simply loose passive -- quite the contrary in fact.

I'll accept that this isn't the optimal way to play this hand if you guys PROMISE to believe me that I was going for the turn c-r in the hand Senor Choppy posted. This should be obvious from the river raise.

If I'd thought a little harder in that hand about SPECIFIC holdings for the guy who cold-called 3 preflop I'd have bet. This 'range of hands' stuff is nonsense. Putting him on a 'range of hands' made me think he had enough of that board to bet for sure last to act, and I could get two bets out of each of them. But obviously he had TT, JJ, or maybe AQ/AJ with a club. In this case in fact it would have been three bets each on the turn, since Mr. SB (Choppy?) would have raised the turn allowing me to three-bet. But I was representing a mere club draw, going for four turn bets and risking it being checked through, so I take my medicine and will take the ridicule.

Not a super well-played hand but the river raise proves that I was going for the turn check-raise, and my problem was greed and not fear.

I do continue to stand by the Angeloitis in the first hand, but I'll admit that this player's stats tend to suggest that I should have ignored my gut a little more.

JimmyV

Nightwish · #34 07-09-2005, 03:06 PM

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A fair point about retarded 49% VPIP players. But let's keep in mind that my n was still kind of small -- he's not unlikely to be a 31% or some such on a wave of good starting hands.

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Where are you getting this? My own experience tells me that after 50 hands, the VP$IP estimate is pretty close to a player's true VP$IP. It's extremely rare for it to be off by 18 points unless the opponent all of a sudden changes his strategy.

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To this hour no one has named a hand besides bottom pair or mid pocket pair that is at all likely to pay off turn and river given how the flop went.

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How about any gutshot and A high, which players with a VP$IP of 49 love to chase?

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I'll accept that this isn't the optimal way to play this hand if you guys PROMISE to believe me that I was going for the turn c-r in the hand Senor Choppy posted. This should be obvious from the river raise.

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I know you were trying to go for a check-raise in the other hand. This is why my comment there was that your turn play was horrible. Trying a turn check-raise with just one guy left to act behind you on a board where many river cards may kill you is not just greedy, it's suicidal.

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I do continue to stand by the Angeloitis in the first hand, but I'll admit that this player's stats tend to suggest that I should have ignored my gut a little more.

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OK, so you're hopeless. Why do you even post the hand if you refuse to admit your obvious mistakes after a dozen people tell you that they're obvious?

DcifrThs · #35 07-09-2005, 04:25 PM

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I do continue to stand by the Angeloitis in the first hand, but I'll admit that this player's stats tend to suggest that I should have ignored my gut a little more.

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OK, so you're hopeless. Why do you even post the hand if you refuse to admit your obvious mistakes after a dozen people tell you that they're obvious?

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JimmyV · #36 07-09-2005, 07:04 PM

I did admit it was a mistake, and I stand corrected on the question of how much can be gleaned from stats when n<100.

I think reasonable people can still disagree about the QQ hand, since it's a big reward if the LP player bets, and he did after all cold-call 3 preflop.

Thanks for the posts --

J