what to do with AK here?

[illguitar]

I would feel pretty confident that UTG has JJ, KhQh, AK, AJ, or AQ. Not really many other possibilities for this tight player from UTG to play. Probably doesn't raise with KQs or AJ UTG, looking at JJ, AK, or AQ I think. Could be AJs I guess. Fish could easily have 2 broadways with the K or Q of hearts. He isn't much of a concern because he is coming anyway and it should become apparent if he hits what he is looking for.

So, 1)Call. You are probably behind, but too much to fold. Raising doesn't do it for me. Although there is merit to the argument of charging said fish, the money could very easily be going to UTG.

2) If hero raises and is reraised call down unless fish raises UTG bet on river.

By the way...what range of hands does the UTG raise with and not cap? Wouldn't he cap AK and JJ? but probably not AJ or AQ. Thinking about this part of the hand does a better job explaining his holdings.

[Ryno]

If you use the following hand possibilities for UTG, assume they are all equally likely, and assume that donk has 25% pot equity (i.e. 4-13 outs, and/or a slim chance of having a monster), then your pot equity is around 31%.

JJ – 3 ways
AK – 6 ways
AQ – 8 ways
AJ – 6 ways
88 – 3 ways

The problem is that AQ can't be "equally" likey - in fact it might be quite unlikely. If you knew UTG had AK, then of course you'd raise and he'd 3 bet and you'd trap the donk for 2 more bets, but given the unlikelihood of UTG having AQ (and, the even greater unlikelihood of him 3-betting it), I would call. The best case scenario for raising is that donk has 4 outs, and UTG would play AQ this way - then you have 38% pot equity. Worst case - UTG can't have AQ, donk's equity is around 25% - then yours is 10%.

So - a pot equity range of {10% - 38%} - I am calling, not raising.

If I did raise, and UTG 3-bet, I am calling. The chop chances alone are just enough.

[jfresh]

without reading responses...

i don't think you can raise here, it doesn't look like UTG is going to slow down. hero has already shown strength for at LEAST AKo, and UTG is saying he can beat that. I would say UTG has AJ. middle guy is giving good overlay (with flush draw?), but its not worth anything if you are putting money in while behind.

[elindauer]

Hi mike,

After the flop, UTG looks at hero as {AA, AK, JJ}. He sees this opponent, and bets anyways. That's a sign of great strength.

Hero in fact hold the weakest of these hands, so he should not be raising. I'd say he should look at UTG as something like {JJ, 88, AJ, AK?}, so he should call, as he has odds to chop / improve to win.

If hero is so foolish as to raise, and he is 3-bet, he's put himself in the horrible spot of being almost surely drawing dead in a pot almost big enough to justify calling. Yuck. I'd say he should slap himself for raising, and then pay off the 2 bets just to further drive home to himself how poor his raise was.

-Eric

[rory]

If the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] wasn't on the flop, the UTG guy could have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or something, but since the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the flop he can't have that. So we are pretty sure that UTG has us beat at this point-- he probably would have reraised AK preflop and possibly JJ, so it is unlikely he has those hands. He probably has AJ or 88. If UTG is a good player he has to know AQ, if he has it, is probably behind to AK after the flop action, so it is really doubtful he has AQ. Raising the turn has no point because we are almost definitely beat. We can call the turn hoping to spike a K on the river and call the river because the pot has a million bets in it. We might even get to save a bet on the river if the donk catches his flush and doesn't know any better than to try for the overcall on the river. I can't see folding in this pot, just in case of a chop. But man I want to call the turn and fold the river so bad, I'm just not sure I could bring myself to do it. It's probably right, amazingly.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
But man I want to call the turn and fold the river so bad, I'm just not sure I could bring myself to do it. It's probably right, amazingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes. You don't think your odds of chopping with AK would justify a river call?

Good luck.
Eric

[rory]

Yeah that would be the only reason why I would be calling, to chop. On the river there will be around 20 bets in the pot. But I'm calling to chop, so I'm only calling for 10 of those bets. Do I think I am going to chop 9% of the time here? It would depend on how much I knew about the player, but most good pros would cap AK preflop. I don't think you chop 9% of the time, but what do I know.

[DanZ]

I would usually call the flop instead of 3 betting and see what happens on the turn. A lot can change. I'd also love to know what suit your K was.

[Josh W]

I know about this hand because I was at the table when it happened.

Hero had AKs, with none of his suit on the flop.

UTG was Loose aggressive preflop, with solid postflop ability.

Donk was aggressive. He almost certainly does NOT have hearts, and if he has QT, there's at least a 50% chance of him raising the flop (double gutter). If hero raises the turn and UTG threebets, donk will call with a naked gutshot. he's that type of player.

Also, and this may effect Clark's response...one of the blinds called one bet on the flop but folded after hero threebet the flop.

In 5+ hours of playing together, UTG checkraised hero exactly once. On that hand, Hero openraised late and UTG was in the SB. He (SB) called, as did the BB. Flop was J88r, and SB checkraised with KK.

Hmmm, I think that's about it.

Josh

[Josh W]

Note that your reasoning also means that IF you raise the turn and he threebets, you need to be roughly TWICE as likely to chop in order to call down (because you'll need to call a third turn bet and one on the river....you'll be putting in two bets hoping for a chop instead of just one).

Josh