AQs playalong

[imported_The Vibesman]

Looks like just me and about one other person wanted to bet the flop, so y'all probably hate this one:
I'd bet the turn. This may be a big leak of mine.

I've seen many opponents call the flop w/overcards but fold the turn. Someone may have had two suited cards and had been hoping to pick up a flush draw. Every opponent that folds here is a victory. Someone may even fold the best hand. I've done it. And again, I don't see any reasonable hand other than 44 or a 9 (or 88 now)that you are dead against. I don't see how this turn could have improved many hands. You can easily fold to a raise.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand epitomizes what I don't like about this board. Here we have a huge pot, position, and noone showing any aggression and many of you guys want to turn into weak-tight vaginas.

These are the pots you want to go after aggressively -- the big ones. Hell, I think a river bluffraise could even be justified (if we are bet into on the river here) because the pot is so damn big.

You guys want to get aggressive as hell with your medium pockets when its heads up and there are overs on the board but you won't go aggressively after this huge pot because "there are too many people in the hand." Well, that's how pots get huge.

It's much better to try and steal a huge pot like this from a lot of people than bet aggressively heads up because the percentage of your chips that your are putting into this pot is small while aggression heads up means you are putting in half the chips. Get aggressive with big pots, not small ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take back my previous post.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Hell, I think a river bluffraise could even be justified (if we are bet into on the river here) because the pot is so damn big.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this would be wise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You make some great points though in your post. People are saying that a 4 will be seeing the river, but how many here would call down with a 4 when the preflop raiser (a TAG no less) bet the flop and turn into 4-5 people? Granted these people are probably more passive, but we know at least one of them is weak/tight if not more.

[madscratch]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like just me and about one other person wanted to bet the flop, so y'all probably hate this one:
I'd bet the turn. This may be a big leak of mine.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a leak of mine which is why when I think about it I think the smart move is to check. I often tell myself that "well, no one's shown any strength, so maybe MHIG." But the fact remains we've got AQo against multiple players. Let's see if we improve for free.

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
People are saying that a 4 will be seeing the river, but how many here would call down with a 4 when the preflop raiser (a TAG no less) bet the flop and turn into 4-5 people? Granted these people are probably more passive, but we know at least one of them is weak/tight if not more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Anyone without a 9 is scared and looking for a reason to fold. And the point about it getting checked to you on the river is good.

[deception5]

1,179,198 games 10.375 secs 113,657 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 14.2209 % 13.09% 01.13% { AQs }
Hand 2: 21.4351 % 20.33% 01.10% { random }
Hand 3: 21.4583 % 20.34% 01.12% { random }
Hand 4: 21.4127 % 20.31% 01.10% { random }
Hand 5: 21.4731 % 20.36% 01.11% { random }


3,664,255 games 15.250 secs 240,279 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.1438 % 19.85% 01.30% { AQs }
Hand 2: 26.2867 % 25.13% 01.16% { random }
Hand 3: 26.2999 % 25.14% 01.16% { random }
Hand 4: 26.2697 % 25.11% 01.16% { random }

[SugarPush]

Someone should correct me if I am wrong here; however, I do not think that you need the best hand to have pot equity to raise. You just have to have better than 1/(people in pot) percent chance win. In other words if you think you will win the pot greater than 1/6th of the time and you think that you will get 5 callers then you have the pot equity to raise.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
1,179,198 games 10.375 secs 113,657 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 14.2209 % 13.09% 01.13% { AQs }
Hand 2: 21.4351 % 20.33% 01.10% { random }
Hand 3: 21.4583 % 20.34% 01.12% { random }
Hand 4: 21.4127 % 20.31% 01.10% { random }
Hand 5: 21.4731 % 20.36% 01.11% { random }


3,664,255 games 15.250 secs 240,279 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.1438 % 19.85% 01.30% { AQs }
Hand 2: 26.2867 % 25.13% 01.16% { random }
Hand 3: 26.2999 % 25.14% 01.16% { random }
Hand 4: 26.2697 % 25.11% 01.16% { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem right. How can every random hand be ahead of our AQ? Does every random hand have a 9 in it?

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone should correct me if I am wrong here; however, I do not think that you need the best hand to have pot equity to raise. You just have to have better than 1/(people in pot) percent chance win. In other words if you think you will win the pot greater than 1/6th of the time and you think that you will get 5 callers then you have the pot equity to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right on, brother. And don't forget folding equity. A bet on the turn here might fold AK if it's out there (which it probably isn't given the pre-flop action). Any hand that folds to our bet is +EV for us.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem right. How can every random hand be ahead of our AQ? Does every random hand have a 9 in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

well you have to figure part of "random" are hands like AA and QQ.