Are there any good football handicapping books out there?

[Billy Ricard]

Looking for a good football (NFL or College) handicapping book. Can anyone recommend one?

I am thinking of the Trace Fields College Football book...can any recommend (or "dis-recommend") that book?

[mikelow]

The problem is that there is so much player and coaching turnover that any book becomes outdated. You have to get
the right information and analyze the current data correctly.

I think you learn more by following the teams.

[Billy Ricard]

that sounds like good advice. How about any current newsletters, websites or the sorts, where I can read up on angles and other information. I'm not necessarily looking for picks, but relevant information on the upcoming games that I can filter out for myself to make a decision on a game.

[Raken]

<font color="blue">How about any current newsletters, websites or the sorts - BR </font color>

There's a guy in Cleveland named Phil Steele who puts out a good newsletter called Power Sweep. You can visit his web site at www.ncsports.com. He also puts out a yearbook that has a lot of good information.

Another good yearbook is Marc Lawrence's Playbook. He is at www.marclawrence.com

If you're just starting out in football, I suggest you select either college or pro rather than try to do both. They are two different handicapping animals. I further suggest you go with college if you have no special aversion to the college game. It's a lot easier than pro handicapping.

Raken

[Wildbill]

To go even further, choose one conference and each year add one until you got 3 or 4 covered well. That would be the best way to start from scratch and getting to be a matchup handicapper. I don't necessarily condone following the teams religiously to most, especially newbies, because a vast majority of people can't handle it from a betting perspective. Knowing a team better than most does NOT guarantee profits if you don't understand how to work within the framework of betting for value.

As for the newsletters Phil Steele is the best out there, although he had a terrible college season last year, worst of his career I think. He probably comes back strong, but I do worry that a guy like him that has used the same methods for 20 years might get himself dated if he becomes too attached to his personal theories that worked in the past, but may not work now. In the end newsletters are mostly about giving picks and that isn't going to teach you much.

[Billy Ricard]

[mikelow]

For college football, I use Phil Steele's preview. For the NFL,
I have been using Pro Football weekly's magazine, but I may switch this season as the publication is fantasy-oriented.

[Billy Ricard]

does Phil Steele have a NFL preview?

[Wildbill]

He does but its kind of hard to find, often you have to order it through his offices. The college one is everywhere, probably soon if not out there already. His previews talk mostly about personnel changes so there is a lot more value in that for colleges than pros. I personally NEVER buy nor look at NFL preview magazines. Their predictions are generally worthless and not worth the paper they are printed on. They just survive off the hype of the coming season, getting all these fired up people who can't wait for the season to start to buy them. As for useful information forget about it, you can find more timely, less hyped stuff on the net. And just remember the NFL is so closely matched that player changes and team success are really more related to how people work together than who a team added or subtracted. Staying healthy is everything as well. In the college game its more about talent because the new starters for a good team are often better players then those playing at most schools and the preview magazines will give you a good taste of what to expect. They aren't much better at making predictions though, best to ignore them as well if you can. Pay more attention to what the different units are looking like, especially the offensive line. Teams with a top OL are almost always playing in a BCS game, so if you do just one thing get a magazine that breaks things down unit by unit (Phil Steele's is the best at this) and try to read through the hype and figure out if the OL is improved or not, and then measure that with how it did last year. After you do that try to figure out the same thing for the DL, although this is A LOT tougher to do because emerging DL players are much harder for anyone to predict at any level of football, any coach will tell you this. Size and speed are good things on paper, but effective guys have moves and instincts that you just don't know about until they show it on the field against the top level of competition they are about to face. If you do just this I would almost guarantee you will do well in September because everyone else early in the season is focused on whose QB is back or who has the best skill position guys. Its not until 3 or 4 games are played do people catch up to the importance of the battle in the trenches.

[Dr Wogga]

...college football IS changing, IS evolving. More under classmen are leaving college for the draft, kids getting personal trainers, coaches - even agents coming out of high school (maybe even pee-wee football??). It is getting harder for up 'n coming schools to maintain any kind of consistency with respect to talent procurement, as almost all solid HS players are negotiating with 2 or 3 of the football factories, to ensure they play in the "right system" that gets them into playing on Sundays. The Nebraskas, the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" schools just ain't going to be getting the cream of the talent crop anymore.

So few of these kids go to college for an education anymore and try out for the 'ole' football team. It as if they have made their college career part of some scripted path to NFL riches. Appears to me that the college landscape is heading for a blander, less emotional, more 'calm, business sense' type of environment. Just makes for harder and changing handicapping.