Quiz: test your EV instinct

[coltrane]

thanks for all the responses guys....this was an actual 5/5 hand I played, and my first instinct was that I should call because if I hit I knew I'd get his stack (in the actual hand, I had him covered)....so I did, and I did.....but after the session I wanted to figure out the actual EV and found that I had underestimated the implications of redraws.....it was a -EV play and not really close (like some of you said)......it was interesting to me because often I think it is the case in big bet to make a call with a draw on the flop, but then either dump it on the turn or hit the draw on the turn and have the call be +EV because of implied odds....I was surprised how much redraws affected the math....

now, if there was more money left to bet and I could've made another value bet on the river - that changes things....or, if I could add AK or some other hands to his possible range - that also changes things.....also, as RBK said, tilt factor is an issue.....the guy in this hand was a total nit, so if you asked me if I would pay 30 bucks just to see him lose with a set of aces and spew chips the rest of the night - I might've gladly obliged......plus, as ML4L said, "hitting draws is fun"..... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

now, as far as actual math, I got different answers than some of you....here is my math - I think it's correct and exact, but perhaps someone can double-check it.....




If he doesn't have the Ah:

when I miss:
37 * -150 = -5550

when I hit:
8 * [((34 * 925) + (10 * -725)) / 44] = 4400

so:
(4400 - 5550) / 45 = -$25.56 EV


If he does have the Ah:

when I miss:
37 * -150 = -5550

when I hit:
6 * [((34 * 925) + (10 * -725)) / 44] = 3300 (no heart on turn)
+
1 * [((28 * 925) + (16 * -725)) / 44] = 325 (7h on turn)
+
1 * [((27 * 925) + (17 * -725)) / 44] = 287.5 (Qh on turn)
= 3912.5

so:
(3912.5 - 5550) / 45 = -$36.39 EV

and finally, it's 2/3 likely that he has the Ah, so:
(-36.39 - 36.39 - 25.56) / 3 = -$32.78 Total EV

[srm80]

don't know why you want to make such a marginal call with so much money, a lot of which is your own, when you aren't suited and you know the over cards arent helping if you hit them and you know whether or not you hit the turn you will be put all in anyways. That's an expensive way to create a table image/and put somebody on tilt, even though you took all of his money anyways, and I hope you had some big friends with you walking out of the place. Plus if you create a loose table image wouldn't that take away some stealing and bluffing ability as well? You don't hit big hands often enough to get big payoffs, I would rather "box" with players after the flop. BIG, BIG, friends walking with you to the car. I think there are other ways to create a table image, that won't cost as much money

[Greeksquared]

Your combinations are right but numbers are wrong. You will get 1075 if you win. This will make it just about even.

[ML4L]

Hey Greek,

[ QUOTE ]
Your combinations are right but numbers are wrong. You will get 1075 if you win and only lose 575 when you lose. This will make it just about even.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to examine the hand from the flop. Between the pot and his opponent's stack, he wins $725 + $200 = $925 when he hits his straight. When he gets rivered, he loses the $150 he put in on the flop plus the $575 on the turn, for a total of $725.

You are counting money that he himself put in on the flop as money that he "wins" and not counting the cost of the draw on the flop as money that he loses.

ML4L

[Greeksquared]

I suck

[sniperd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Coltrane, this is realllll close, as you are no doubt well aware. You're getting 6:1, you need 5:1 if he has no redraws, but he does have a 1/4 chance of boating on the river, so it's almost exactly even. It's so close that it's not really that interesting IMO.

I call this if it's a capped buyin and I feel a need for a big stack. Otherwise I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

In doing the math in my head, I'm getting correct odds to call and hit the turn, but his ten redraw outs look like it pushes it back to even or slighty -EV. When I end up in places like this (where it is damn close to even) I start to consider all the meta game issues instead.

-Can I rebuy to cover if I lose
-If I break this guy will it hurt/help the game now, and in the future
-What image do I want to project, can I just fold and expose my cards to get the same image for free?

Stuff like that can push you way +++ on future hands. Not to hijack the thread, but I did something sort of like this last week in my home game along the same idea.

There is only 1 other player in my home game that will put moves on me that I fear. He check raised me all in on the flop, I was the pre flop raiser:

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

And I just felt he was pushing his draw. After doing all the EV math I just decided that I'm coming real close to break even (%time he's ahead, I suck out, % time I'm ahead and hold up, etc). So I thought, well, even if I lose, my call of his shove here WILL stop him from doing it in the future w/o the goods. So I did, he had his draw, and my Ace high held up. After that hand he just stayed away from me and just got out of my way, and mentioned later that, "We play to much together." So, in that sense, my earlier call increased my EV for future hands, since he's the only one at the table I want to avoid and now he's staying away.

[Leptyne]

I don't believe I've ever seen a math quiz where everyone agreed on the answer. One poster stated "there is more than one way to figure EV" before posting his calcs.

I prefer to be the agressor, but at the same time I don't want to be seen as a player that can be pushed off a draw by a big bet. I probably fold this hand, thinking that the EV could go either way. But then again...it all depends.

[Leptyne]

Leave it to Gomberg to add in the proverbial..."it depends". The flush card gives you the opportunity to push the turn as Gomberg suggests, or you could check behind and get a free card, depending on...........

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
but his ten redraw outs look like it pushes it back to even or slighty -EV. When I end up in places like this (where it is damn close to even)

[/ QUOTE ]

did you read the thread? it's not slightly -EV or "damn close" or anything like that, it's a -EV call that costs about 6 big blinds.

I agree with riverboatking that there's more to big bet than math (although no one will think you're a crazy loose gambler for making this call), but coltrane posed it as a math problem.

I think problems like this are great, since they help sharpen our intuition in situations, but only if we take the time to actually work it out, instead of saying things like "it's close" or "it's slightly -EV" which have no mathematical basis whatsoever.

--turnipmonster

[BobboFitos]

Hey Coltrane,

alot of people are blowing by something I found important. How the hell did you get 200$ (40bbs) in the pot heads up preflop with jack ten offsuit?? I'd try to avoid that.