Limped with AK - 600 NL 5-max

[9cao]

Villain has only been at table about 10 minutes and haven't seen anything too out of line. He has about $550 and I have him covered. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Hero is UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero calls $6. Villain MP raises to $20. Button calls $20.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Pot($59)

Hero checks. Villain bets $35. Button folds. Hero raises to $100. Villain calls.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Pot($258)

Hero checks. Villain checks.

River: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Pot($258)

Hero checks. Villain bets $85. Hero calls.

[AZK]

He probably isn't going to bet anymore after you c/r the flop like that. I like the check/call, lead turn line...

[9cao]

The line I took was hoping that he has AQ or AJ and since I had limped he would think he is good enough times to come along. Once he called the CR to 100 I had him pegged on a very small range of hands, with some rough estimates of how likely I thought they were:

AQ - 45%
Ax (not 2 pair, including AK) - 35%
Ax (2-pair) or set - 10%
Some random holding like KK, or 57 - 10%

When that queen hits on the turn I guess I can revise my estimate of him holding AQ down but I still thought it to be as likely as a weaker ace. So let's assume that on the turn 50% of the time he has 2 pair or better and 50% he doesn't. Should I still lead out and fold to a raise? Should I shut down and go into check-call mode?

[thabadguy]

I dont think hes gonna call the cr and then bet river with anything you beat on such a drawless flop.

[Big_Jim]

I agree with badguy that most players have you beat on the river here, especially after calling your C/R. He might have gotten cute with AQ, some other two pair, or a set.

On the other hand, you're getting 4-1 on your money on the river, so I think you have to call.

I think I prefer to check/call down with AK here,maybe leading the river if he checked behind on the turn, or if you are fairly sure he has AJ,AT and is capable of calling, folding to a raise.

There's not much he could be drawing at, considering the action, and I wouldn't really want to play a big pot.

[9cao]

Since he checked behind on the turn I thought it was an easy call on the river. He showed AJ and my AK was good. In hindsight, I think leading out the river for $100 and folding to a big raise would have been a good option. I don't think too many opponents at this level would check behind with a set or top-two on the turn given my flop check-raise. I also wouldn't expect him to try to take me off the hand either since he can't even pot-it back if I make it $100 and therefore I think I am winning more than 50% of the time I am called...........maybe not though.

[XXXNoahXXX]

I think there is a good chance that he would bet a weaker A on the river thinking that your c/r was a steal attempt, especially considering your turn and river check. I think this is an easy river call given the weakness you've shown since the c/r. Any results?

[9cao]

Good read on the hand, bad read on the replies. Results are there.

[ggbman]

I like the way you played it.