Three marginal decisions in one hand.

[2+2 wannabe]

A7 can probably be folded pf here

flop call is marginal at best

i initially loved the turn raise - but now i think it's spewing (what is the purpose of it?) - it seems to put money in the pot at a pot inequity to yourself (although it could get you a free showdown)

[btspider]

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It's true that best case scenario, you're getting 4.5 outs on the flop: 1.5 for the flush and either 3 aces (if Villain has a big PP) or 3 sevens (if villain has AK, AQ). For redraws, board-pairing flush cards, the chance that your pair outs are already dead etc, you'd need to discount obviously.

But my biggest problem with the flop call is that you're getting very heavy reverse implied odds if you hit either of your pairs. So let's ballpark the pair outs (either the three aces or the three sevens) as 1 out. Then you're at about 2.5 outs, which seems a little thin IMHO.

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just some things to consider:

the board can't 4-flush and pair at the same time. a doubled paired board only hurts me if I have the best Ace. my pair outs are only dead if BB has an 8 or SB has AA/88/TT. also notice if BB has A2, I still have clean Ace outs for a split.

i'm not sure i see how i have reverse implied odds with my pairs.. especially the Aces. KK isn't check-folding a turn Ace and I'm not going to raise a turn bet if an Ace does drop. so i will get paid off somewhat when i catch while not spewing if I am still behind.

another thing to consider is that sometimes it will be checked to me on the turn and i'll take a free card w/ my likely 3 clean pair outs. its 3 since i'd expect either player to bet the turn with a pair (i am after all expecting a turn bet with less than a pair occasionally from the LAG).

[MrWookie47]

Have you seen him bet with < a pair? Sure, his VPIP and agg. factor are high, but your original read said you had only seen top pairs from him. What else had you seen him bet? Flush draws and OESDs? Gutshots? Bottom pair? A high? Nine high?

Depending on your answer, this might change my opinion of your raise.

[kapw7]

I don't think I've managed to follow your reasoning
So how many outs do you think you have?

[btspider]

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Have you seen him bet with < a pair? Sure, his VPIP and agg. factor are high, but your original read said you had only seen top pairs from him. What else had you seen him bet? Flush draws and OESDs? Gutshots? Bottom pair? A high? Nine high?

Depending on your answer, this might change my opinion of your raise.

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he's a bit of a mouse. if someone else is aggressive, he'll often call w/ as little as one overcard. he did cap a flop HU w/ an OESD and he has checked a few flops w/o a pair after PFR'ing and then bet the turn UI once it was checked through.

the pots that I didn't see his cards were often small, either b/c he pushed someone out or folded on the river (multiway).

[Redd]

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i'm not sure i see how i have reverse implied odds with my pairs.. especially the Aces. KK isn't check-folding a turn Ace and I'm not going to raise a turn bet if an Ace does drop. so i will get paid off somewhat when i catch while not spewing if I am still behind.

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KK isn't folding when the ace hits, but AK isn't folding you, either. You'd still see a showdown if your ace hit, I presume? If so, it seems you'd be paying 2BBs for hand that's second best a good amount of the time. Ditto if you decide to showdown a paired 7 versus KK/QQ/JJ/TT; and Villain might fold AK/AQ in this case and not pay you off.

edit: Considering we count 3 aces as about 1.5 outs on most boards, would you think that it's unreasonable to count them as 1 out here?

[MrWookie47]

Hmmmmm.

Well, that definitely helps your case, but I'm still not convinced. Do you really think you'll be buying the best hand often enough to warrant the raise?

[btspider]

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Hmmmmm.

Well, that definitely helps your case, but I'm still not convinced. Do you really think you'll be buying the best hand often enough to warrant the raise?

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at the time yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think its a very marginal decision. i cannot produce anything that will make it a landslide victory for the raise camp. plus i had about 5 seconds to decide. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SB sure looks like he has 2 overcards. I'd sure fold two overcards facing two bets on the turn. BB sure has some pretty funky numbers and prior actions. once shown weakness, i've seen lots of maniacs bet here with nothing but a flush draw. its probable that he is such a maniac. that was my thought process.

[btspider]

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i'm not sure i see how i have reverse implied odds with my pairs.. especially the Aces. KK isn't check-folding a turn Ace and I'm not going to raise a turn bet if an Ace does drop. so i will get paid off somewhat when i catch while not spewing if I am still behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

KK isn't folding when the ace hits, but AK isn't folding you, either. You'd still see a showdown if your ace hit, I presume? If so, it seems you'd be paying 2BBs for hand that's second best a good amount of the time. Ditto if you decide to showdown a paired 7 versus KK/QQ/JJ/TT; and Villain might fold AK/AQ in this case and not pay you off.

edit: Considering we count 3 aces as about 1.5 outs on most boards, would you think that it's unreasonable to count them as 1 out here?

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vs just SB i think either my 7's are clean or my aces are clean unless he has AA or 88 on the flop. when BB calls the flop, he has just about any two cards here. he'd call w/ an 8 (to raise later), he'd call with a 2, he'd call w/ Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5o probably. so BB really doesn't affect my outs negatively too much since he also produces a payoff overlay. i'm not putting more $$ in the pot unless I improve.. so its very unlikely that I improve while he improves even more.

when you discount overcard outs by 1/2 in multiway pots, its generally when you have an AK type hand and you are saying that when you catch, you will likely only win one half of the time (via reverse domination, being up against two pair+ already, or a river redraw). here, my pair outs are roughly discounted by half for an entirely different reason. w/ fewer to the flop and more specific action, we can put the opponents on more specific ranges than in a multiway pot.

roughly the #'s i'd come up with post analysis would be 1.25 outs for the bd flush and 2-ish outs for my pairs. with some potential for a free card and zero potential for getting trapped for more pets, I made the loose call.

[VBM]

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Hmmmmm.

Well, that definitely helps your case, but I'm still not convinced. Do you really think you'll be buying the best hand often enough to warrant the raise?

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at the time yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think its a very marginal decision. i cannot produce anything that will make it a landslide victory for the raise camp. plus i had about 5 seconds to decide. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SB sure looks like he has 2 overcards. I'd sure fold two overcards facing two bets on the turn. BB sure has some pretty funky numbers and prior actions. once shown weakness, i've seen lots of maniacs bet here with nothing but a flush draw. its probable that he is such a maniac. that was my thought process.

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FWIW, aside from raise PF, i think i'd play this the same as you at the time; just trying to push out SB and maybe get BB to myself.

There are some other points i'd add:
1. SB does look like he's holding overcards and folding a better hand would be great.
2. You also have maybe not much, but some fold equity vs BB with your turn raise on a flushy board. Not to mention, BB could easily be trying to bluff/semi-bluff here. If BB 3bets the turn, it gets hairy...
3. Your river action, if it gets that far, is pretty easy as unless BB has a monster, he's going to check most hands to you.
4. Something else here; it'd be weird, but SB may still come along if he's got the J->K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]; thinking spider's got Tx and a rivered flush wins...in which case he's in for an unpleasant surprise...