inducing bluffs

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think checking the turn is bad in the OP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I think I will get called a good % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

make up a number and I bet we can figure it out.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why you don't bet this turn. I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

These types of players abound at 10/20 - they are too loose, too aggressive preflop, and too aggressive postflop. However, they are NOT calling stations, and tighten up considerably on the turn if they don't have a reasonable hand or draw, while they'll often peel anything on the flop. OP is correct, this type of player will bet nearly every river, regardless of his holding, or what card falls.

Additionally, our hand is strong enough here to raise the river, which makes the line even better - we get 1 bet out of hands that would have folded the turn, and a full 2 bets out of hands that would have called the turn + river, because the river raise is so suspicious he'll call any 1 pair hands that would have gotten to showdown anyway.

Now I'm not saying to take this line every time, but it certainly is a worthy one against this type of player. This is a great deviation from ABC poker and good for mixing up one's game as well. Maybe next time when we check through the turn to try and hit a gutshot w/ A-high he'll think twice before autobetting the river - considering what has recently happened vs this opponent and how he'll react to this type of specific play are important aspects of winning the most from these LAGs.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

He could have a T. He could have 99. He could have an OESD. He could have all kinds of hands that will call the turn AND river. If he has one of these hands, he likely calls the turn and river. If he doesn't and he totally missed, he likely folds the flop. If he has junk and you raise the river, he mucks anyway, but you gave him a chance to catch a card that may beat you. I bet this turn. Maybe I'm wrong, but I do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bob, I understand your reasoning - it's correct from your standpoint, but that is because you seem to be unfamiliar with this type of player - the OP may not have done him justice in describing him.

It's easy to pick up on who plays this way and who doesn't, but it requires actively getting real reads, not pokertracker ones, and some effort at checking HHs.

These players:
Peel the flop nearly always HU
Tighten up considerably on the turn
Bluff bet at any and all signs of weakness
call river raises with hands they intend to showdown
attack the flop with mediocre paired holdings

This type on information leads us to believe that on the turn, our opponent possibly has a T and is slowplaying, but this is not that likely since it is vulnerable to overs. Aside from that, a worse pair is very unlikely because these players bet+raise with mediocre hands, they aren't passive calling stations.

There are few draws, and he'll bet those missed draws on the river as a bluff anyway. He'll also bet garbage hands on the river that he'd never call with on the turn. Sometimes he'll have something like a weak pair that he played differently, but he'll often call our river raise with that.

This line has many things going for it. However, it's very player- and read- specific.

To the OP: nh. Thinking like this is what will help you succeed at 10/20.

Surf

[wrto4556]

you're the man, surf.

[ QUOTE ]
Additionally, our hand is strong enough here to raise the river, which makes the line even better - we get 1 bet out of hands that would have folded the turn, and a full 2 bets out of hands that would have called the turn + river, because the river raise is so suspicious he'll call any 1 pair hands that would have gotten to showdown anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you folding to a 3-bet?

[Surfbullet]

Whether we fold to the 3bet isn't as important, because our hand is going to be best the vast majority of the time - he'll call with those afforementioned holdings (that PokerBob laid out) that would have called the turn.

I fold to the 3bet, however. Bluff-3bets are very, very rare regardless of the limit, especially on the river. If he 3bets we ran into a T or a whiffed c/r on the turn with a set or some-such.

Surf