River decision with overpair.

[HighStakesPro]

You have to call (and show if you lose) here with 9.333 to 1 pot odds and hope he has a smaller pocket pair, overcards with one diamond (admittedly not likely), or something like J9. But just as importantly, you get to look him up and see whether he was capping with a big hand like overpair/trips, top pair, or a straight/flush draw, especially since you just got to the table. Plus, I've found that it is generally a bad idea to have a "fold-on-the-river" image, it's generally more profitable to have people call you down on your legitimate hands then to call them down and hope they're bluffing. If they know you'll call them down with a legitimate hand, the observant ones won't try to bluff you on the river as much, allowing you to check behind them, or fold if they bet, knowing that it's likely they have a real hand.

[elindauer]

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If they know you'll call them down with a legitimate hand, the observant ones won't try to bluff you on the river as much, allowing you to check behind them, or fold if they bet, knowing that it's likely they have a real hand.

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won't the observant ones then notice that I fold the river against them, thus defeating whatever metagame edge I gained by calling here?

I'm not sure I see the point of calling in a spot I think is losing, just so I can then fold in a spot I think is losing at some time in the future. Will my opponents really be able to take advantage of their newfound image of me should I fold here? They don't know I don't have, for example, AK with the Ad. They'll have to cap the flop, then have the worst two cards in the deck come off, only to get the opportunity to attempt their river bluff...

-Eric

[HighStakesPro]

If they see that you call them down with legitimate hands on the river, then if you fold on the river in the future they will probably put you on a missed draw or a hand that just got counterfeited. The bottom line is some people will bet on the river no matter what card comes up if they bet and were called on the turn, and some people will even bet out of position on the river when you've been taking the lead throughout the hand, if a scare card comes on the river, and they will do it no matter what their hand is, so you have to call down on the river. The main problem with raising the turn is that most of the hands that beat you (flush, straight, possibly even trips with a straight or flush draw) will three-bet and you'll lose extra money if you call, and even somebody who's on a draw will three-bet sometimes. Generally you don't want to raise unless you are confident with capping if you get three-bet. If you're going to fold to a three-bet on the turn, you might as well just call down instead, it costs the same amount of money and you have a decent chance of having the best hand at showdown.