SD/100

[DBowling]

thanks for the posts, but i admit i havent taken a math course in a while and im sort of confused. if you wouldnt mind helping, i would appreciate it.

SD= 16bb/100
win= 2bb/100
avg win for 2000 hands = 44bbs
i think my SD for 2000 hands is 72bbs = 16*sqrt(20)

If everything is right up to know, im having a hard time figuring out how to look at this information in relation to a table of the standard normal distribution.

Basically, i would like to find out the probability of myself having a 230bb upswing in 2000 hands

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the posts, but i admit i havent taken a math course in a while and im sort of confused. if you wouldnt mind helping, i would appreciate it.

SD= 16bb/100
win= 2bb/100
avg win for 2000 hands = 44bbs
i think my SD for 2000 hands is 72bbs = 16*sqrt(20)

[/ QUOTE ]

avg win for 2000 hands should be 2*20 = 40 bbs.
SD for 2000 hands is 16*sqrt(20) =~ 71.55 bb.


[ QUOTE ]
If everything is right up to know, im having a hard time figuring out how to look at this information in relation to a table of the standard normal distribution.

Basically, i would like to find out the probability of myself having a 230bb upswing in 2000 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

That table is laid out differently from the one that I described in my post. Yours gives the probability from 0 to z, rather than minus infinity to z. You would have to add 0.5 to each entry to get the table that I described.

230 bb would be 190 bb above average for 2000 hours, and this is 190/71.55 =~ 2.66 standard deviations above the average. The value in your table for 2.66 standard deviations is 0.4961. For this table, this means that the probability is 49.61% that your winnings will be between your average and 2.66 standard deviations above the average. You want to know the probability that your results will be this far above the average or greater, so to convert the number in the table, add 0.5 to it to get 0.9961. This means that the probability is 99.61% that your result will be between 2.66 standard deviations above the average and minus infinity. So the probability that it is greater than 2.66 standard deviations above the average is 1 minus this or 0.39%.