Win rate for a total donk

silly_monkey · #1 07-04-2005, 03:41 AM

I was playing at a table with a complete donk today. It was 6-max 1/2 and her VP$IP was 85% with PFR of 35%.

My question is kind of stupid I guess, but what's the EV in BB/100 for a player like that? I know what the EV for a good player is, but what is the EV for a bad player? What about a more loose-passive fishy player?

eric5148 · #2 07-04-2005, 03:50 AM

Losing players have loss rates, not win rates. I would guess about -3 to -4BB/100.

TRWIII · #3 07-04-2005, 04:03 AM

I suspect that the rate would be sigificantly higher (or worse or whatever [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]) than that. I have one fish in my PT that Ive played over 1100 hands with and his loss rate is nearly -15BB/100. Although its a small sample size, judging from the way he plays I dont think his long term rate can be any higher that -7 or -8 and it wouldnt surprise me at all if it was worse. I love fish.

TRWIII

eric5148 · #4 07-04-2005, 04:08 AM

I guess you're right, and I didn't notice the OP was talking about 6max.

mtdoak · #5 07-04-2005, 09:47 AM

That is an interesting question. The problem with figuring that out is, most players who invest in poker tracker are going to be trying to improve their game, so we really have no way to track them. Its also going to be hard to figure out because alot of those players bust before they have enough hands to establish a win...err...loss rate. All that being said, the fact that they are playing -EV is enough for me.

jba · #6 07-04-2005, 09:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Losing players have loss rates, not win rates. I would guess about -3 to -4BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to nit the nit, but...

if it's a "loss rate", wouldn't it then need to be "3 to 4bb/100"??

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Roland19 · #7 07-04-2005, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Losing players have loss rates, not win rates. I would guess about -3 to -4BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to nit the nit, but...

if it's a "loss rate", wouldn't it then need to be "3 to 4bb/100"??

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

pwned

RatFink · #8 07-04-2005, 11:21 AM

Most of them don't survive long enough with this style to have data that is of a meaningful sample size

VBM · #9 07-04-2005, 11:38 AM

you may see ridiculous short term spikes in either direction, if that is what prompted your question. "short term" may be a session or over a run of a few hands or even seeing them a few times.

Mostly, but not always though, if they stay long enough and enough decent players can withstand the swinginess, the wild ones give it all back & then some.
--oj.