#1
|
|||
|
|||
Can i Push this?
This was before blind posted
Is this instant? Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter UTG (t1410) MP1 (t1190) MP2 (t2500) CO (t1405) Button (t435) Hero (t700) BB (t360) Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>. Final Pot: t150 |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
Given your stack, I'd say you've been calling / pushing this sort of preflop hand already.
For me this is an easy fold. Best odds you've got are about 5:1 to get another K on the flop. Plus you're totally out of position on the post flop action - maybe at CO you could call depending on what the other players are representing and how they've played so far. Don't be fooled by the fact that you're suited - you're odds on hitting the flush are about 25:1 (maybe my maths is wrong here - but its definitely not going to be better than that - could someone cofirm??). |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
I did ICM calculations.. seems to be a SLIGHTLY profitable push no matter your opponent's calling standards. Your ICM estimated prize pool equity might be a little bit too optimistic for the case where you are called and lost.. I don't know [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
EV FOLD = 0.917 buyins EV CALL LOSE = 0.496 buyins EV CALL WIN = 1.436 buyins EV STEAL = 1.111 buyins fold 0.92 buyins push into 10% hands caller .90 * (0.1111) + .10 * (.3348 * 0.1436 + (1-.3348) * 0.0496) 1.08 buyins push into 25% hands caller .75 * (0.1111) + .25 * (.39624 * 0.1436 + (1-.39624) * 0.0496) 1.05 buyins push into 50% hands caller .50 * (0.1111) + .50 * (.4575 * 0.1436 + (1-.4575) * 0.0496) 1.02 buyins push into 75% hands caller .25 * (0.1111) + .75 * (.50996 * 0.1436 + (1-.50996) * 0.0496) 1.01 buyins push into 100% hands caller .5488 * 0.1436 + (1 - .5488) * 0.0496 1.01 buyins |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
I'd push this at a speed I've never pushed before.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
[ QUOTE ]
Given your stack, I'd say you've been calling / pushing this sort of preflop hand already. For me this is an easy fold. Best odds you've got are about 5:1 to get another K on the flop. Plus you're totally out of position on the post flop action - maybe at CO you could call depending on what the other players are representing and how they've played so far. Don't be fooled by the fact that you're suited - you're odds on hitting the flush are about 25:1 (maybe my maths is wrong here - but its definitely not going to be better than that - could someone cofirm??). [/ QUOTE ] What about the possibility that villain folds? |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
Still don't like the pot odds.
I'd need a good read on the villian - but given he's the lowest on chips I'm guessing he'd call the push. I'd prefer to fold on this and hope for a better hand with good pot odds before the BB comes back to me. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
I am pushing this (and a lot worse) very quickly. I am likely pushing top 40% of hands here with the possibility of more if I have any sort of read on the BB that would indicate that he isn't calling with any two.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Can i Push this?
I'm as happy as a puppy dog when i see everyone fold to me. then i push supaquickly
|
|
|