Odds on WSOP ME

[Needle77]

I was checking out Bodog and they have odds on who will win the ME this year. Ivey and Negreanu are the two top with 200-1 odds with many 225-1 to follows(fan favorite Hellmuth being one, heh) If you've seen these or other, how accurate would you say they made these? I mean...they put Esfandieri(350-1) behind Raymer(325-1), nothing against last years winner. I just don't know how to take these numbers.

[TimTimSalabim]

Those odds are nuts, nobody should be better than 500-1, probably not even 1000-1. But that's how those places stay in business.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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I was checking out Bodog and they have odds on who will win the ME this year. ... Raymer(325-1), nothing against last years winner. I just don't know how to take these numbers.

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I'm a terrible bet at 325-1.

Of course, at 325-1, any TWO players you care to pick are a pretty bad bet, let alone any one. The best in the field is at least 1000-1 against in reality.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Ed Miller]

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I just don't know how to take these numbers.

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They are all terrible bets. Now you know.

[Dan Rutter]

Mike Caro has a small article on his website stating that he believes the odds against the best player winning the ME are 1,639 to 1.

[Photoc]

How do you guys feel on the heads up matches? Whomever finishes higher. I saw some pretty good bets in there like Raymer vs Moneymaker both at -120. Pretty much every televised "rivalry" from the past decade is in there such as Sidel vs Chan, Damon vs Chan, Duke vs Afleck, and so on.

[HighStakesPro]

I also have checked out Bodog's odds, and I agree the odds for big names are absolutely terrible. However, if there was one bet I'd make, it would be $5 (the absolute minimum you're allowed to bet on a player) on Erik Sagstrom at 1250 to 1. The guy has major internet experience and success, made a final table at the Five Star Classic this year, and from what I know he's very aggressive and probably willing to gamble enough to give him a decent chance to build a big stack, in which case he'd be a real threat. Besides that, Mark Gregorich wrote an article for card player in which he quoted one pro who said that if he was setting odds he would make Sagstrom the (relative) FAVORITE to win the main event. If you want to make a bet just for fun and have an outside chance of winning 1250x your bet, this is as good a chance as any.

As far as the last-longer bets, I have taken a very close look at them and believe that some of the bets may be pretty good. The main thing to consider is that in almost every case it's a virtual coinflip a to who lasts longer, because so much of it depends on table draw, which first day they draw, and so many other factors, and most of the pros are close enough in skill level that my guess is nobody has a really significant chance of outlasting someone else, unless its an extreme case of a rock against a maniac, where you might take the rock. But because most of these matchups are probably about 50/50, I went down the list and chose the ones that pay out better than even money for a win, except for Moneymaker vs Raymer (+120) cause we all know Moneymaker sucks, and Raymer has made the final table in a 2300+ field TWICE now, proving he's a real threat to go deep again. The other one I didn't take is Paul Phillips vs Phil Hellmuth (+110) both because Hellmuth always gets there late and generally is willing to sit on a shortstack for awhile, whereas Phillips is more likely to gamble. Here are the matchups I did take:

Evelyn Ng over David Williams (+120)
Joe Cassidy over Daniel Negreanu (+120)
Paul Darden over Phil Ivey (+120)
Brett Jungblut over Scott Fischman (+120)
Matt Damon over Johnny Chan (+160)

I was planning on putting $10 on each of these and $2 on Sagstrom, and deposited $62, but I forgot about the 20% deposit bonus and ended up with $74.40, then realized Sagstrom would cost at least $5 so I decided against it, and ended up putting $12.50 on the first five (to win $15) and $11.90 on Damon (to win $19.04)

I have never bet on sports or poker or anything like this before, but if anyone else is placing any bets or has na opinion on my bets then I'd be happy to hear it.