Funny Fold

[KDawgCometh]

if I was completing the action, then I'd make the crying call. but sb has been taging along the whole time too, and we can't know whether or not they will call(to which it will then be impossible to beat two people). but I know that curiosity would normally get the better of me


-keith

[DMBFan23]

one thing that always annoys me is when people say folding costs you the pot. yes when you fold and had the winner you lose 22 BB.

but if you only have the winner 1/50th of the time, you're not "costing yourself the whole pot" by folding.

it's kind of the same thing as raising because "he COULD have a draw or mid pair"...that's great, but you also have to factor in his other hands, and see how you compare against his range of hands

anyways, yeah I fold with 4 players still in on the river.

[colgin]

Let’s do some math on this problem.

Here are the two different assumptions I am making as to villains holdings given the way the hand played out.

Assumption 1:

AA – 6 combos
KK – 3
QQ – 3
JJ – 3
TT – 3
AK – 12
AQc – 1
KQs – 2

(Note: I don’t see villain playing any hand with a 9 in it this way although if he did, you lose to those hands also.)

Assumption 2: Same as above except villain could have KQo as well, which adds 7 more KQ combos.

The other important question is whether villain would bet into three players on this river with just top 2 given the way the hand played out. I think that probability is quite low, but let’s assume that 50% of the time a player with villain’s profile would do so. The other 50% of the time he would not and would have to have one of the combos that beat you.

Under assumption 1:

EV of calling = 50% ((2/33 x 23) + (31/33 x -1)) + 50% (-1) = -0.27BB

Under assumption 2:

EV of calling = 50% ((9/40 x 23) + (31/40 x -1)) + 50% (-1) = 1.7BB

Now by adjusting these variables you get different results. I personally think it is unlikely that KQo was played this way and I think that fewer than 50% of players of the type described would bet into a field with top 2 on this board given the way the hand was played. I still like a fold here, but clearly you can come up with assumptions that are not completely insane to justify calling.

Also, if you take out KQo as a possibility and reduce the possibility that he would bet top two into this field to say 25%, your EV gets very bad indeed.

EV = 25% ((2/33 x 23) + (31/33 x -1)) + 75% (-1) = -0.63BB

[DBowling]

qc jc

[gaming_mouse]

Not folding here is awful, IMO.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
You're good here never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Slightly less often than that IMO.

[Entity]

[13:55] <B_Dids> that's a gay fold on Josh's part

[B Dids]

[01:56] <B_Dids> oh
[01:56] <B_Dids> asldfkjasklf
[01:56] <entity_> dunno
[01:56] <B_Dids> I suck at reading
[01:56] <B_Dids> nevermind, good fold
...
[02:04] <entity_> I'm going to make dids sound like a poker genius

[obithrawn]

irc logs irc logs irc logs

(this thread is going down the tubes fast)

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
But how close to never is 1/23?

[/ QUOTE ]

They're nearly a full big bet apart.