Using pot odds in NL

[Rode_Dog]

I've been thinking about pot odds quite a bit lately. In limit games, pot odds are pretty straight forward. If you flop a 4 flush you need 1.9:1 to continue. If I have the same 4 flush on the turn, I need 4.1:1. Implied odds do come into play, but are still pretty straight forward.

But I play NL and NL is a different animal with regards to pot odds from the flop. Although my odds to hit my flush from the flop are, in theory, 1.9:1, the likelyhood of continuing to the river if I miss on the turn is substantially smaller. The reason is that even poor NL players will make larger bets as a percentage of the pot. They may not know they are giving you incorrect odds, but that is what they are doing. This means that you are much less likely to have the odds to see the river card.

I would tend to think that using pot odds that assume a two card draw in NL cash games is a mistake most of the time. I think I should only draw with odds to the next card unless some other factor gives me greater implied odds. Common thinking seems to be that one calculates odds from the flop based on two cards unless other facrtors make that draw incorrect.


I don't want to miss opportunites to scoop a pot, but I don't think the long term profit is there when using 2-card odds from the flop. Does anyone think this is a mistake?

[gomberg]

You are misunderstanding the concept and have it backwards.

You should only use the 2-card pot odds (in both NL and LIMIT) if you are somehow all-in on the flop so you can actually see the 2 cards w/out putting any more money in or can get a free card on the turn. The ramifications of this are that you use the 2-card pot odds in NL much more often than in limit, because it is possible to be all-in on the flop.

Also, in NL, implied odds are much more important than immediate pot odds... so you have to include the money you can win if you hit (stack sizes), as well as any bluffing equity you may have later in the hand. Generally, you should call (if raising isn't the best play) if you are getting immediate 3:1 odds on either street if you are drawing to a nice nut draw and have position.

Hope that helps somewhat.

[zkzkz]

Moreover you have to include the chance the other guy will fold. If you think he's on a marginal hand (like playing high pair when the board is all low cards -- any high card could be a scare card for him) you might have a chance at winning even if you miss your draw. Or he might be bluffing and you might already have him beat.

But nonetheless I think you are partly right. In limit even though the bets double after the turn if you have enough bets in the pot already then you'll often have the odds to call a bet to see the river. This often happens in low limit tables where there might have been lots of limpers or it could also happen if the pot has been reraised.

In NL unless you or your opponent is shortstacked you can be pushed off the pot even if it's already been pumped up.