overcards and flush draw

walkdoc · #1 06-30-2005, 10:40 PM

Played about 7-8 hands and no real read on the table except a little loose aggressive. I figured the overcards and flush draw worth a call on the flop. All hell broke loose on the turn and I think my odds were good no matter what to call to the river. Was I correct or nuts?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (27 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.
Yeah, I know I should've re-raised!
Final Pot: 39 BB

Shillx · #2 06-30-2005, 11:04 PM

Cap the river. If you lose...so be it. You have too much overlay not to do so. Only one of them (at most) can have you beat, so at least 2 of them are putting dead money into the pot. This is just a dream situation dude....

The flop call is interesting to say the least. This is one of those spots where you should call if you were guarenteed that no one would raise behind you. With people to act behind you who have the ability to raise, it often times turns these types of calls into folds. Paying two bets on this flop with a BD flush draw is clearly -EV while it is +EV to pay just one bet.

GTSamIAm · #3 06-30-2005, 11:18 PM

Calling preflop is questionable this early. The flop is questionable, I agree. You need to know people will call these bets and not raise to make it. And the turn call it seems... The pot is 13BB when it gets to you and you are calling 3 cold. So you are getting the pot odds to continue, but it just seems so...wrong. I would probably fold here, it is possible (maybe) that you are against a set, which lowers your equity, possibly enough to lower your equity enough to make calling unprofitable. That turn call just looks so ugly. What pot odds do you need against a set with one card left? More comments.

PygmyHero · #4 06-30-2005, 11:19 PM

I think the poster behind me covered the flop action comprehensively.

At the turn you have to figure someone has an ace for the wheel. Actually, given the betting sequence, probably 2-4 people have wheels. Assuming that is the case you know your overcard 'draw' is no good. You now have 9 remaining outs - the heats.

Personally I have a lot of trouble calling 3 cold when my hand has no immediate value. Furthermore, if someone is sitting there with Ax suited in hearts, you are drawing dead. You are getting 13:3 when you call 3 back on the turn, which is good enough if your flush draw is good even if you don't know if UTG and UTG+1 are going to call. To some extent I think you can assume that one or both of them are going to call - it IS Party $0.50-$1 after all.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that I totally agree with your assessment of the odds - you have the odds to call this bet. The calls you will get from UTG and UTG+1 more than offset the number of times you will call, make your draw, and still lose. Nonetheless I will frequently fold here as I am usually willing to sacrifice some EV in order to decrease variance. I don't think there is anything wrong witht the way you played it (save the previous posters comments about being raised on the flop).

dozer · #5 06-30-2005, 11:27 PM

I would fold the flop, you have a BD draw and 2 overcards outs that are probably dirty. Out of the decisions of calling/raising- to clean your K or 9 outs/ and folding, folding is the best option out of the three IMO.

And cap the river! The way everyone played thier hands, you can't really put them on Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. And they will not think that you have flush because it came runner runner.

Hojglad · #6 06-30-2005, 11:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling preflop is questionable this early. The flop is questionable, I agree.

[/ QUOTE ]
You fold two overcards getting like 10:1 with a backdoor flush draw and a backdoor two-pair draw?

GTSamIAm · #7 06-30-2005, 11:53 PM

Yeah, I would first to call. You don't fear a raise? Or perhaps, even though rare at this limit, a reraise?

Hojglad · #8 07-01-2005, 12:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I would first to call. You don't fear a raise? Or perhaps, even though rare at this limit, a reraise?

[/ QUOTE ]
With those rags on the board, no.

teajay · #9 07-01-2005, 12:10 AM

I can't believe that I would ever think about calling three cold. But actually, you're getting 4.3:1, so that would say a call.

Theres one slight problem I could see here. You know that all this action is coming from people playing Ax. But the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is still unaccounted for and the slim chance someone may be playing Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] could cause concern.

Raise the river.

Oh, and nice hand.

2moreTerps · #10 07-01-2005, 12:48 AM

How many outs do you count?

I see people betting a wheel or a set.

Your king is not good, the only way you're winning is with a flush. The 2 or 3 could well be dirty because they may make a full house to someone. One of the players betting at a wheel may have the A of hearts. I'd say that 7 outs is a generous estimate. IMO you're not getting the immeadiate odds to call the turn and it may not even be that close.

Of course i forgot about the people calling behind you. That improves your odds tremendously as does them calling the river because the pot is still so big. I guess you should call the turn but I would have folded preflop and on the flop.