Anyone fold with AA here?

[minwoo]

Well guys,
He had pocket 7s and his set held up...duh!
I didn't mind losing the hand but what bugged me was that I don't think I'd be able to lay down aces on this flop no matter which tourney it is. But I know that big laydowns are what wins tourneys. I was just wondering if anyone COULD lay down aces on this flop and what their reasoning would be.

[billyjex]

big laydowns in online tournaments are NOT what win tourneys. Getting your money in when you're likely ahead is.

[Double Eagle]

You need to understand that once you put him on a range of hands (and then take the right course of action), what your opponent actually turns over is completely irrelevant to the correctness of your decision. If he turns over a hand that you estimate he will have only 20% of the time it's the same thing as losing with AA vs KK. Cards happen, get used to it....

[tshak]

The best read you'll probably ever get live is that he has a strong hand (set, AK), or is weak and bluffing/semi bluffing. Even with the range of strong hands you've got a slight EV edge (add more EV for the percentage of the time that you're wrong and villian has a weaker holding). There may only be a handful of people in the world who can make a near perfect read (extremely sure of a set) in a live game to fold this hand profitably.

[sekrah]

Tough one.

I don't see him having K-Q, if he's a decent player at all.

He doesn't make this all-in move with K-Q because it's a very real possibility that you could be holding A-K with your preflop action.

Like another poster said,. A-K, 7-7, 4-4 are the likely hands that he has.

A good player might play back with A-K pre-flop to collect more information.. But let's say there's a 33% chance of him having each of those 3 hands.

There's 18470t in the pot. You must call 8491t (all in), abt 2:1 on your money, with two outs if you are behind..

It's close, but unless this was the final table with the big money, I would call. I might fold this at a final table, with all the shorter stacks left to go.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
first, bet the flop. C/R here and folding to a push is just insane IMO.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed that you need to bet this flop. If you do that, and get raised, you can consider the possibility that you are beat. (You're representing a strong king at least, and he's saying, "I don't care.") This is probably one of those situations in which my instincts would be saying, "Fold, fold, fold!" and I call. (And often win it.)

Sam

[luvrhino]

I think your EV has to be higher within this tournament by calling. If this was your last $10 and the mafia and/or your wife was going to break your kneecaps if you crapped out of this tourney, i *could* see folding to his all-in while you still have 20xBB and waiting for a safer position for your chips if you're superior to all your opponents.

If this wasn't your last 10 bucks and your hourly EV is definitely improved by calling the all-in against a vast majority of opponents. With the nearly 2:1 pot odds, if you win, you'd be in commanding chip position and in great shape to place high in the tourney. If you lose, ascribe it to bad luck and go enter another tourney. Folding and trying to crawl back from a shortish stack to eek out a spot in the money will not be fun and likely be a waste of time.

A Kc7d4c Flop when you have AcAh is about as close to perfect as you could get without an ace or a small pair/trips. The only semi-reasonable hands that beat you are 77 and 44 (88% fav, give or take), no one should have 2 clubs, and you're a huge favorite to AK (and KQ).

You can't give up 2:1 pot odds on the Flop to online opponents when the only hand you fear is a spiked pocket pair.

[Jason Strasser]

Yes on an innocuous board like this.

You cant fold here and let all the AK-KJ and much worse hands get away. These players are lag/bad typically, dont make tight laydowns.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
first, bet the flop. C/R here and folding to a push is just insane IMO.

How it was played, I would probably kill someone if they were stopping me from clicking call.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahaha

i agree.

[tshak]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see him having K-Q, if he's a decent player at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $10 SnG. Hero has no read on him yet. It's extremely safe to assume that this is a possibility IMHO.

[ QUOTE ]
It's close, but unless this was the final table with the big money, I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's nowhere near close. In the absolute worst case scenario your hand equity is 51% (AK, 77, 44) getting 2:1. You're sacrificing at least T6000 by folding this hand unless you can make a perfect read that he has a set (as I mentioned earlier in this thread, I don't think there's many people in the world who could even in a live game). In reality our hand range is probably too conservative, and our +EV of T6000 is the absolute least we're throwing away by folding (I'm thinking we're closer to T9000 for this specific scenario).

I think I'm way too long winded and should have just stated the +EV numbers instead of all of my rambling theories in prior posts. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]