Turn semi-bluff check-raise

[W. Deranged]

Not totally, but the more I think about this play the more I like it. If your equity is in fact 20%, you are giving away about (1-.2*3), or .4 BBs by betting out here. Given that the pot contains 8 BB already, you only need to be right in time in 20 to make this bet even.

Seems like that'll happen.

Note: I'm obviously discarding a lot of the subtlety here, including the effect of the third player, etc... I'm just saying that if you can buy the whole pot as little as 5% of the time your bet will pay itself back, and I'm confident if you can take it down 10% of the time the bet is signficantly +EV.

And yes I do have the right to change my mind.

[elindauer]

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I think you just picked up 9 outs on the turn and need to call a bet and see the river. Button could 3-bet, SB could wake up and 3-bet - both are probably comitted to calling one more on your turn checkraise.

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How often do you see calling stations call preflop, call the flop, call a bet on the turn, and 3-bet when it comes back to them? I'd say the odds of a 3-bet from him are close to 0. Certainly not high enough to even think about when making strategy decisions.

As for the TAG, let me put it this way. Facing this action, what hands could YOU hold that you would 3-bet? Aces with the ace of clubs isn't even a possible holding for him, as we hold the trump card.

I think the odds of a 3-bet are very low, and we should formulate strategy with the assumption that a raise will be met by either one or two calls. In light of this, I think a raise is clear. You don't need the TAG to fold the best hand very often for it to be right, since you lose so little even when he calls. How often does this 1 extra bet cause him to fold the winner and hand you the pot? I'd say it's a very significant percentage of the time.

The more I think about this hand, the more clear it is that doing anything but raising is a significant mistake.

Good luck.
Eric

[crunchy1]

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I think the odds of a 3-bet are very low,

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I'll semi-agree. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] However I do think that given the general nature of 6max the range is possibly larger than the replies have given credit for. I also think that Hero (as is the nature of 6max) is going to showdown UI a lot more.

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and we should formulate strategy with the assumption that a raise will be met by either one or two calls.

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I think we should formulate a plan for going to showdown. According to the OP - Hero is expecting to be behind when Button bets the turn. This means we need to hit on the river to win on the river AND Hero is OOP.

It just seems to me that this raise is losing us more than it needs to when we're behind (which is assumed to be the greater percentage here on the turn). The secondary effect is that we're not going to easily make up that difference even when we do hit.

[damaniac]

Crunchy's comments on the nature of 6-max (to say nothing of blind stealing) are interesting, as I hadn't fully considered the possibility that villain will call me down more often given that. However, I still think it is a very strong looking line against a thinking player.

To those you are curious about the results, Button folded to my raise, SB called. River was a blank, check/check, SB shows 84o for a busted gutshot (no flush draw), MHIG. So no idea what the villain folded (I really wish someone would estimate how often he has an overpair here, I don't have enough 6-max or blind-stealing experience to provide a decent estimate given the postflop action). I also wish someone who is semi-decent at math could show how often button needs to fold a better hand (ie overpair) given my odds to improve on the river anyway for the bet to be +EV (I guess you also have to factor in those times that SB beats you too, so I doubt it is easy).

Finally, I forgot that two decent sized clubs would always raise this flop and bet this turn, so I forgot that as a legit (albeit rare) hand combo, which would also often 3-bet me.

[ecooke]

Nick,

I agree with Eric here - this play looks great against a thinking player and is a neat concept in general. Good timing, good execution, just good. In fact, if you slapped me with a c/r in a protected pot on a paired board and I was holding aces (no club) I will very likely fold and probably even feel good about it.
Nice work.

Eli

[Wepeel]

In this situation I prefer to bet the turn. The way the action looks on the flop, it seems as if the button is trying to force out sb by raising if he is a TAG like you said.

I understand where the check-raise is coming from in order to push the button off a high pocket pair (which if I was the button with a high pocket pair no clubs I would fold). However, I'm not too quick to assume he has a high pocket pair as this is clearly a blind stealing spot. HU I love the check-raise, add in the sb and I like the bet on the turn to make sure money gets in and see if the button raises whereas I call down.