Hand to Talk About

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

Here's an interesting hand I played earlier this evening. The game was $30-$60.

Three players limped in including a very good player in the middle. I called from late position with K[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]. Both blinds played so six of us saw the flop for one bet each.

The flop was K[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]. It was checked to me and only the good player called.

The turn was the 3[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]. We both checked.

The river was the 8[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]. My opponent checked, I bet, and he called.

All comments welcome.

Best wishes,
Mason

[ALL1N]

I think it's quite a fine play.

Given that the opponent is a very good player, I think the only hands you can figure him for are AJ, AT, and A7.

There are 4 BB's in the pot on the turn, and he is going to fold each of those hands when you bet.

By giving a free card, you are going to lose the pot plus a river bet about 10% of the time (AJ, AT: 4 outs; A7: 5 outs). However, for nearly every other river card that could fall, your opponent may well figure you for a bluff and call you down with his A-high or pair of sevens. Or, better still (but less likely) he could bluff into you.

If you win an extra bet on the river more than 50% of the time then the play is better than taking the pot on the turn. I think this is likely, as the weakness you showed on the turn will induce many river calls.

ALL1N

[flopdanutz]

What could your opponent have to make a call on the flop and check call play on the river?

I dont play any high limit but a check call on the river with AT or AJ seems a bit loose passive, (maybe not the style a good high limit player?)

I would have to say maybe a middle pp and chose not to raise it preflop, maybe 99,TT? Maybe he flopped second pair, QJ? QT and was looking to hit a queen or kicker card for a cheap flop bet? I doubt he would check a king with a decent kicker unless he knows he is behind.

mason's check on the turn bet to induce a call? seems profitable if you can successfully put your opponent on a hand and suspect he will fold to a turn bet. The river bet seems safe because there is a strong possiblity that the good player will bet out his hand on the river if he hit.

I suspect mason's turn check was a represenation of a flop steal -> chicken out on the turn -> desperately tried to buy it on the river. that might have triggered a river call with an pocket pair or a weak pair. Also if the good player was calling with middle pair (queen) and was hoping to hit a jack or ten kicker then mason would make a more if he hit and bet agressively.
those are my thoughts....any comments?

MASON, did u get to see what the guy had?

[DKNY]

Hi Mason,

Pre-flop would you raise with that hand sometimes to vary your play or to drive out the blinds?

His call on the flop was interesting and suspicious. If he had something like JT he would probably play back at you. And why would he call with only middle or bottom pair? AQ or A7s could be a possibility. You had to suspect he might've flopped bottom set.

He hasn't showed much strength so far, prehaps a bet on the turn would've lost him, and there's the possibility of a check-raise from him because he flopped a set. So your check on the turn accomplished the following: It will let you know where you are by the river since you have position on him, you avoid getting check-raised or you got your opponent to think your bet on the flop was a position bet or semi-bluff.

Your opponent would've bet on the river if he did flop a set, since he checked, your 2 pairs were good and you were successful in inducing a call from him.

Hope you can tell us what he was holding and your thinking on every round.

D

[bernie]

youre putting him on a set way too fast here. he only called a flop bet. no way you can be scared of a set from this. many other hands he could hold. there's only 1 set he could really hold and thats 7s. he'd have raised preflop with KK or QQ.

b

[Dynasty]

The turn check is a mistake for several reasons, the most noteworthy of which may be that the K[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] is unaccounted for.

[Dynasty]

youre putting him on a set way too fast here. he only called a flop bet. no way you can be scared of a set from this

He's not worried about a set. Mason thinks his opponent has either middle pair and is drawing dead or has bottom pair and is drawing to two outs. I'm sure Mason thought this opponent would check-fold either of those two hands on the turn but would make a crying call on the river, especially with a Queen.

If the board wasn't so draw heavy, the play would be a reasonable option. But the gut shot straight draws and the unaccounted for K[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] make the play a mistake.

[bernie]

what does it matter about the Kh? the good player doesnt have a K. he'd have bet out or shown some strength. if it comes on the river, mason gets a FH.

i do agree about the gutshot though as being a possibility.

unless mason had an inkling that this player would fold the turn, meaning he was drawing very slim, id have bet the turn

b

[elysium]

hi mason
it looks like your opponent has kicker problems. the turn check......hmmm.

yesterday mason i would have put this opponent on JTs, and been wrong. or i would have him on KJs or so, and again been wrong, because those reads would have come from a book, and not from the gut. so, i'm going to take the advice from tommy, major, mike and sucker to put down the book, and read from the gut instead. and i don't know how i know this, but i know what your opponent is holding, exactly AhQd. yes, the book says KJs, but not the gut. so at a gut level, i like the turn check-down. he's an 18-1 or so dog, and when you consider the number of times your hand will improve and increase your implied odds, which will not happen if your opponent's hand improves because he MUST bet out on the river when he makes 2 pair, but must call your raise when he makes trips, meaning that your implied odds increase when your hand improves, but his doesn't; when you factor that in against the advantage of betting to pick up the pot on the turn, seeing the river has positive ev., and it appears as though the way that top two pair on a hi, hi, rag, rag board cuts down your opponents effective odds makes seeing the river for implied value correct. if, for example, you had only two pair here, i'm sure you would bet the turn because now trips wins over your two pair. but it's that gut read that does it. and you thought you were going to get me on this one. well, thankfully i listen and learn; here, just in the nick of time. gut level hand-reading.....mason just yesterday i would have had this post exactly wrong.

[leon]

Mason, I don't like the turn check for several reasons. You almost certainly have the best hand and there are draws which can call the flop and will call the turn bet. Two examples would be 10J and a backdoor heart draw which caught on the turn. You advocate "check behinds" a lot more than many and often your rationale makes a great deal of sense. Here, I think a check is a mistake.

The good player's river call now suggests he had a hand which he might not have called a turn bet with, say QJ, but your turn check has now sown enough doubt in his mind that he looks you up. That said, I still think overall this turn check is a mistake. Clearly, with his simple call on the river your hand is good.

I'll give him QJ suited.

Leon