John Vorhaus and Killer Poker

[jedi]

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difference of having AA with a AQ8 flop from a 44 with a Q84 flop.

the straight draw is still alive(J10)still has two outs.

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This is from 2 dimes: (constructed so that suits don't matter)

AA Vs JT on Q84 rainbow

As Ah 734 74.14 256 25.86 0 0.00 0.741
Ts Jh 256 25.86 734 74.14 0 0.00 0.259


44 VS JT on AQ4 rainbow

4s 4h 838 84.65 152 15.35 0 0.00 0.846
Ts Jh 152 15.35 838 84.65 0 0.00 0.154

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AA is so much stronger as you can see.

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I don't see this at all. As a matter of fact, I see the set of fours as stronger here.


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If you're going to change the problem, of course it's going to come out differently. In the Aces example, the flop was supposed to be AQ8, not Q84. And in the 44 example, the flop has to be Q84, not AQ4. The way you've done it, you've made it a set of 4s vs. no straight draw, and top pair Aces vs. straight draw. Completely different scenarios here.

[Dov]

Sorry for the typo. The data was correct, though. Here it is again, in its entirety. (modified to enhance readability)

pokenum -h A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] -- A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 734 74.14 256 25.86 0 0.00 0.741
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 256 25.86 734 74.14 0 0.00 0.259


pokenum 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] -- 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 838 84.65 152 15.35 0 0.00 0.846
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]152 15.35 838 84.65 0 0.00 0.154

The fours are significantly stronger than the aces. Even when they both make a set.

I think this is because the A that makes your set helps to make the straight that the JT beats you with.

[Ortho]

Well, the JT in the top example has 8 outs and the one in the bottom example has 4.

[DanS]

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difference of having AA with a AQ8 flop from a 44 with a Q84 flop.

the straight draw is still alive(J10)still has two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from 2 dimes: (constructed so that suits don't matter)

AA Vs JT on Q84 rainbow

As Ah 734 74.14 256 25.86 0 0.00 0.741
Ts Jh 256 25.86 734 74.14 0 0.00 0.259


44 VS JT on AQ4 rainbow

4s 4h 838 84.65 152 15.35 0 0.00 0.846
Ts Jh 152 15.35 838 84.65 0 0.00 0.154

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AA is so much stronger as you can see.

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I don't see this at all. As a matter of fact, I see the set of fours as stronger here.

It catches up here:

AA VS 55 on AQ4 rainbow

As Ah 989 99.90 1 0.10 0 0.00 0.999
5s 5h 1 0.10 989 99.90 0 0.00 0.001


44 VS 55 on Q84 rainbow

4s 4h 883 89.19 107 10.81 0 0.00 0.892
5s 5h 107 10.81 883 89.19 0 0.00 0.108

But the fours are still a monster favorite to win.

I understand now that the point was to take a street by street analysis, and not a bet by bet analysis.

However, having flopped a set of fours, I think I like my hand quite a bit and will be getting a lot of money in this pot. (I hope)

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Something's wrong with your AA vs. 55 sim. With a flop of AQ4, the .001 chance for 55 accounts only for perfect-perfect quads, and doesn't factor in the 1-2% of the time that 55 spikes a wheel.

Just a tiny nit. Good sims, good post.

[Rozez]

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Now suddenly, the fear hits.

1. We sure hope no one has a JT (looking for a 9) (Why not? It's a 4 Outer!)
2. We sure hope no one has Q8 (4 outs)
3. We sure hope on one has 55 (2 outs!)
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That's weird. I don't understand why I should be afraid of anything in this particular situation. I have a set which means I have 10 outs to a full house or quads on the river, so even if my opponent hits his draw I'm not such a big underdog.

Some people just want to create worst-case scenarios for every possible situation in poker. In my view, this is a waste of time.