Reposting of moving up

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Jason:

Here's an essay from my book Poker Essays, Volume II that you might find helpful.

Best wishes,
Mason

Moving Up

Poker players frequently wonder when they should move to a bigger game. Typically a player has won a little at the limit he or she has become comfortable with and is anxious to win a lot more at a higher level. The problem is that the bigger games tend to be tougher than the smaller games because successful players do move up.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go to a higher limit if you are ready. There is no question that an expert will, for example, usually expect to win more at $20-$40 limit than he will at $10-$20 — even if the game is tougher. But this may not be true for a marginal winner.

So when should you move up? On the Internet I recently read that if you have won over a period of a hundred hours at your limit, you should be ready for the next level. I don’t quite agree with this, but in some cases a hundred hours may be enough. There isn’t any simple answer to this question.

If you are facing this decision, some concepts I have developed should be useful. The more positive you feel about these ideas, the quicker you can safely move to a bigger game. Just keep in mind that if you are not successful, you can always move back down.

Concept No. 1: At a higher limit, your bankroll should be relatively larger. In my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics, I show that your bankroll should be predicated on two parameters: your win rate and the standard deviation (the statistical measure of short-term luck present in any poker game). Generally speaking, as you move up in limit your relative win rate will drop (as measured by betting units won) and your standard deviation will increase since many players will play more aggressively. Both of these factors require a larger bankroll, which can be seen in the following two tables (reprinted from my book Poker Essays.)Table I: Texas Hold’em

Limit Player
OK Good Great
$3-$6 $1,500 $1,100 $1,000
$4-$8 2,800 1,800 1,700
$10-$20 8,000 4,900 3,900
$20-$40 39,600 20,000 11,200
$30-$60 59,400 37,600 19,900
$50-$100 165,000 74,900 38,700

Table II: Seven-Card Stud

Limit Player
OK Good Great
$1-$5 $750 $600 $500
$5-$10 2,000 1,800 1,500
$10-$20 5,600 3,200 2,500
$15-$30 15,500 9,400 5,600
$30-$60 92,800 52,800 24,000
$50-$100 260,000 132,000 68,000
$75-$150 437,000 167,000 97,000


These tables, by the way, assume first of all that you plan to play a particular limit for life. If you are willing to move down if you lose — and I strongly suggest that you do — then you can make do with about two-thirds as much money. Just drop to a lower limit if you happen to go through half your bankroll. Second, notice the difference between the okay player and the great player. Being able to win at a much higher rate has other advantages besides just making more money.

Concept No. 2: You should be a proven winner for a reasonable length of time. If you have been losing at some particular limit you are definitely not ready to move up. The idea that the game won’t be as loose and that you can’t win in “no-fold’em” games but can win if your opponents play a little better just doesn’t make much sense. (If you can’t beat players who are making lots of mistakes, how will you be able to beat players who don’t make as many?)

But what exactly is a reasonable length of time? I believe that it is somewhere between one hundred and five hundred hours of winning play. The next three concepts should help you determine which number you are closer to. A word of caution: Do make sure you have been winning. If you feel that your play is great and you do nothing but lose, you should probably move down — and make sure you get at least a hundred hours of experience at the lower limit.

Concept No. 3: You should have a distinct reason for making virtually every play that you make. Here’s an example: An expert player will not raise just because he has a good hand. But he will raise to get more money in the pot, to buy a free card, to gain information, to knock another player out, to manipulate the size of the pot, to randomize his play, to change the pot odds that another player will get, to set up a bluff, and to make you misread his hand. And, when he makes a raise, he will not only do so for one or more of these reasons, he will also understand exactly why his action is correct.

If this is not your situation, you may not be ready to move up unless your opponents are very weak. In addition, if you find yourself occasionally getting lost in a hand, that is, you cannot explain why you made a particular play, then you may need some more practice time at the lower limit.

Concept No. 4: You should be able to observe numerous errors in the play of some of your opponents. This is the other side of the coin: You need to be observing mistakes in the play of your opponents. Weak players will make lots of errors. You should be able to see these mistakes and understand exactly why they are mistakes. This way you won’t make them — and it will be clear to you that you really have a big advantage in the game. (Remember, just because you have won for some recent period of time doesn’t mean that you are a winning player. You just might have been lucky.)

Consider this example from seven-card stud. If you see some of your opponents routinely calling a raise from an early position player with a pair and side card both smaller than the upcard that they are facing, and if you are not making this mistake, then you have an edge.

If you can see a lot of errors like, this then you probably have a big edge and will do well in the higher limit. Even though the players might be a little better in general, they will still make many of the same mistakes.

Concept No. 5: You should be willing to move back down if your initial run is unsuccessful or if the bigger game is currently very tough. Many players who move up seem to enjoy the status of playing at the higher limit so much that they are willing to go broke before they move down. Needless to say this has been the demise of many a poker player.

I agree that to be successful at poker you need to be confident. But you also need to be a realist. If you are not doing well, and your bad run lasts for a fairly long period of time, you need to examine your game plan and probably go to a lower limit.

In fact there are two reasons for this. First, you may not be playing as well as you think relative to your competition. Sometimes bad players get better, and the former “live one” may now be winning your money. Second, your bankroll is now reduced and your chances of going broke have gone up. It can be frustrating, but virtually every top player has had to go to a lower limit and grind the money back.

There are some players who just never want to move back. If this is the case with you my advice is either change your ways or play at the lower limit long enough for there to be no doubt that you will be successful when you do move up.

Finally, if the bigger game is exceptionally tough, it might not be worth playing. Many top players at times find the lower limit games more profitable than the game that they normally play. These are the players, in fact, who seem to be the most successful.

[bcr]

This essay is even more boring than JasonHoldem's post.

[ResidentParanoid]

Thanks for posting this Mason.

[Homer]

This essay is even more boring than JasonHoldem's post.

What are you trying to say, that Mason's post is the second most exciting post ever created -- or is this supposed to be some kind of put down?

Color me confused.

-- Homer

[ElSapo]

Hey Jason... nice post. I went through some of the same thoughts you did just recently, in deciding to move from .5/1 to 1/2. I did the same, and found that the only difference was that players didn't seem to call just because they were curious (quite as much, anyways). The skill level is not that much better better - - you still see J4o take down the occassional pot (if by occassional you mean twice a night) - - and the tables are still relatively passive. If you can do it, I certainly would. I heard advice on both sides of the argument when I considered moving up, thought about it and then just started playing a mix of the two levels. So far, my results at 1/2 have been far better than at .5/1. This may be because I'm playing tighter, or I may simply be running good. Regardless, give it a shot (you obviously are, already)... if it doesn't work out, simply move back down. No big deal.

[Homer]

You guys are both easily good enough to beat 1/2. You are good enough to beat 2/4 and 3/6 as well (assuming proper bankroll was not an issue).

-- Homer

[Loosemoron]

I think you are not ready yet. Can you real take the heat at 1-2 ? You probably will have swings of $ 20 or even 30 within a hour of play. That could give you a heart-attack.

[Homer]

Let us all show restraint and ignore this poster, so that another of Jason's threads is not deleted.

-- Homer

[jasonHoldEm]

Mr. Malmuth,

Wow, thank you for sharing your essay (ironically I own Poker Essays I and III, but not II).

I actually read your essay (in PE III) "Playing for Minimium Wage" to help me decide when to move up. In the essay you discuss how sometimes the more "advanced" plays don't work in the lower limits because the players are too loose to be manipulated (in the essay you use the example of betting an open-ended straight in EP to get out scarry overcards). You go own to suggest playing the low limits to get your feet wet and then move up as soon as you are ready. I realize there is not much of a skill difference between .50/1 and 1/2, but as a previous poster did mention there are at least a few less people who will call you down just out of curiosity (so at least in some cases, you can begin to use the more advanced plays).

I'd apprecaite it if you (or anyone else) might be able to compare live games and online games as far as skill level related to limits. It's my understanding that the skill level rises more quickly online. In your essay you state that in live games around 6/12 and 8/16 you can begin to apply some of the more advanced concepts, what would be the rough equivalent to this online?

Thank you again for reading and sharing your essay.

Jason

[jek187]

When I was in Vegas, I found the 3/6 and 4/8 to play very similar to Party's 1/2. This was in March, so keep in mind it was before Party started going crazy. I'd say a factor of 4-5X your online limit equates well to the live limit.