Party 25, does the math work out for this chase?

[spentrent]

I was fairly sure that I'd get my implied odds paid -- on all streets -- by my aggressive opponents in this hand. Does the math work out? Am I just lucky he had a hand to call with on the river? Should I be raising this flop with my weak overpair?

I normally hang out in the STT forum so please pardon my postflop idiocy [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

SB ($63.7)
BB ($32.3)
Hero ($23.95)
UTG+1 ($10.75)
MP1 ($15.8)
MP2 ($27.13)
MP3 ($24.2)
CO ($44.77)
Button ($19.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $1.40, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($4.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $1</font>, SB calls $1, Hero calls $1.

Turn: ($7.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50.

River: ($12.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero is all-in $19.95

[PinkSteel]

Preflop it works fine, but once the flop hits I don't think you have the odds to chase.

On the flop you're 7.5:1 to hit your set, fine. But once it comes and you miss, the pot is $5.75 and you have $22.45 behind. You must call $1, so you're being offered $28.20 to $1, and your odds to hit on the turn card are 45:2 or 22.5:1 against. So that's a good price if you EXPECT to double through with your 3rd 8 every time, or even somewhat less than every time (~75% I think?)

But, factor in that you could still lose if you hit, and of course Villain could fold at any time, and it's at least close; I don't think you get there.

And of course, your odds to chase the river are somewhat worse than the turn.

Glad it worked out in the end, but I would have folded the flop. Like I said I think it's close, and if it's really close, who needs the variance?

Edit: Of course, I ASSUMED it worked out in the end....