QQ vs cap: an Ace falls on the Turn

[krimson]

This is 6 handed so his range of capping hands might of increased, even slightly.

I think i'm putting in a raise on the flop and betting the turn if checked to. He is hopefully as afraid of that ace as we are and it could be him folding to it if we are the agressor in the hand, rather than the other way around.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't figure out why peter_rus would be slumming it at 3/6, and it really puzzled me despite being irrelevant to the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's my student who learn to play TH at one of mine accounts.

[JJH3984]

I think this is a clear flop raise 6 handed. If he three bets just call down. You will be shown JxJs enough to call getting 8-1 on the river call. I don't like a raise on the turn for the free showdown because (as someone else said) you are forced to call a threebet. The only time the turn raise would be good would be if you could get KK to fold, but without reads, I don't think its worth it.

[Argus]

I considered raising the flop, but as I mentioned in the OP I hadn't seen siginificant adjustments to the shorthanded nature of this table, though it's possible villain might cap with JJ and AKo or even TT now. I just don't have enough hands to know. While I was playing I put Villain on the range: AA-JJ (6 combinations each, except QQ of which there is 1), and AKs (4 combinations).

My initial plan was to see a showdown as cheaply as possible, betting the river if checked to and there are no overcards. However on the turn pretty much the perfect card for a semi-bluff came. The range that a thinking villain puts me on is wider than the range I can put villain on, so I can't agree with those who recommend a flop raise for information or value. 12 of his hands beat me, and I only beat 10. However now on the turn I can eliminate several of his holdings and it is now:
3 combos of AA
3 combos of KK with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 combos of KK without K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 combos AKs
1 combo QQ
6 combos JJ

Except for the 3 combinations of KK with the Ks, any time I make my flush I will win. So those who say to call a river bet if a non-king spade drops are being a bit weak. I would raise any spade. But my point here is that on the turn the pot is 6.66 BBs to me, and I expect that villain can and will fold KK without spades to me if I raise. He will probably also fold QQ and JJ (though maybe the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will hang on). KK with spades might even fold incorrectly, or check/fold the river if the flush doesn't get there. I'm not counting on villain being that donkalicious though. There are still now 10 hands that I can hope to beat by raising (7 of which I am ahead of and am raising for value), and only 9 hands that beat me and will stay in.

Now I do an EV analysis based on 1 bet going in on the river (though this won't happen in every scenario, I think it's a fair enough simplification). I also ignore the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] making a boat for villain and hitting my Q or flush allowing me to collect more than one bet. Finally I assume the turn is never 3-bet; I think this is reasonable, since only AK is in position to do it and many 3/6 players are afraid of the flush if I raise.
Calling:
Put in 2 bets 19/19
Get 9.5 bets 6/19
Get 9.5 bets 10/19 * 1/5
Get 4.75 bets 1/19 * 4/5
The rest of the time I get 0 bets.
EV of 0.2 (not going to showdown is a mistake).

Raising:
Get 8.66 bets 7/19 (he folds to my raise)
Get 11.5 bets 12/19 * 1/5 (calls a raise and I make a flush)
Get 10.5 bets 3/19 * 4/5 (calls the turn raise with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
Put in 2 bets 19/19
Put in 3 bets 12/19
EV of 3.2 if he always folds KK without spades. That makes raising way better. Even if he only folds that KK 50% of the time and never calls with it if the flush hits my EV is 2.6. Much better than calling down. edit: Even if he 3-bets AKs I'm putting the same number of bets since I will fold the river unimproved instead of calling when I miss my flush.

I think a lot of people underestimate how much of a coup it is to fold the chop and KK hands and steal the pot even a small percentage of the time. This is a great place for a free showdown semi-bluff. Although I included river bets in my calculation, being able to take a free showdown when I miss my flush makes raising even better.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
I also ignore the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] making a boat for villain and hitting my Q or flush allowing me to collect more than one bet. Finally I assume the turn is never 3-bet; I think this is reasonable, since only AK is in position to do it and many 3/6 players are afraid of the flush if I raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think assuming you never get threebet here in this spot is a HUGE HUGE mistake. The raise may very well be correct; however, you will get threebet here a lot, especially by a thinking player who will figure out that there is no flush that you could reasonably have. My guess is that you get threebet by AK and AA a vast majority of the time. I also would guess that you won't get your average 3/6 player to fold KK here even close to 50% of the time. You will never get KK with the King of spades to fold. I doubt you will get even QQ to fold 50% of the time. What will happen, against a typical 3/6 player (if you have a read on your opponenet then thats a different story, but I wouldn't fold KK to a raise here) is that you will get smaller pairs like JJ and TT to fold, which you don't want at all. Again, you may be right in raising, but I think you need to reavaluate your assumptions. Also are you sure that the villian couldn't have AK? You said you've been at the table two orbits. Without a read on the opponent, I think you need to broaden his range here.

[Blackjack]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the decision here is on the river, whether to call unimproved. I wouldn't have raised the flop either, because as was said most people have a pair of aces or kings when they cap in this spot and AK will never fold anyway so you're no favorite and you can't protect your hand when it is good. And personally I think if the guy bets the river, it's pretty close as to whether you're going to be good often enough to call, and folding is probably right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have raised the flop to see where I was in the hand - otherwise you're pretty clueless. If he 3 bets.. you can check/call unless an overcard hits.

On the turn I would call and hope to hit a flush or a third queen. Pretty much all hands have hit against you on that turn and your only saving grace is if you hit the flush and it's good.

Blackjack

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Except for the 3 combinations of KK with the Ks, any time I make my flush I will win. So those who say to call a river bet if a non-king spade drops are being a bit weak. I would raise any spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't comment directly on non-king spades on the river because I couldn't decide.

One thing to consider is that if Villain actually bets the river when a fourth spade falls, the chances that he just made a flush go up quite a bit. Another possibility is that he's taking one last frustrated desperation stab (with a non-flush JJ, say) and won't call the river raise.

I think raising the river with the second nuts is all right (in fact, I suspect it's best), but you are getting 3-bet by the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], most likely you'll just be called by worse spades and sets, and Villain will sometimes fold instead if his hand isn't as good as a set. So you are giving some odds on your raise.

I don't know. I think a lot of the time (though not always, admittedly) he's going to check to you with hands that he wants to showdown that can't beat your flush.

(By the way, I read the intro to the hand post before responding initially and still somehow managed to forget that the table was short-handed and you had commented on how it was playing, which is sort of embarrassing. I guess the peter_rus reference distracted me or something.)

[mscags]

I think you have to raise the flop here to get a better idea of where you're at. If he reraises I fold the turn. If he just calls I probably take a free card and reevaluate on the river

[Guruman]

I disagree with the sentiment that you need to raise the flop purely for information purposes, but I do still think you should raise.

You stated that the villain may be a little loose, which means that even though you're behind AA and KK, there's a wider range of hands that you are waaay ahead of here, and you need to make those hands pay. If he's even a little too loose, he can cap/lead down to KQo and pps down to TT or 99.

I'd raise for value against a range of weaker hands, and and slow waay down if he decides to three-bet me here.

I like to look at information bets a lot like backdoor flush draws. Alone they don't account for much - but combined with other possibilities they can add enough value to influence strategy.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[smartalecc5]

Just to let you guys know. Peter_rus played 15-30 and was a winning player after 275 hands.

He has a 23.4 VPIP and 2.84 aggression.

I relaize this hand speaks more on a theoretical spectrum than this specific hand example, but if I were in the poster's shoes, the information would be deemed valuable to me.