Folded Overpair/Gutshot

Colonel Kataffy · #1 06-27-2005, 10:48 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Hero folds, MP1 3-bets, MP2 caps, MP1 calls.

River: (15.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 19.66 BB

Easy fold, right?

JoshuaD · #2 06-27-2005, 01:00 PM

3-bet the flop. MP1 is raising a wide range of hands that you have beat here, and he's not really raising the likely ones you don't have beat. His raise is a very weak raise (he's putting the field to 2).

Even if it wasn't a weak raise, 3-bet the flop.

Your turn fold looks right to me. I'm not giving credit for the straight, but it's a possibility, and you don't have the odds to improve to your set/2 pair.

Colonel Kataffy · #3 06-27-2005, 01:25 PM

I felt I was ahead after the flop, but I thought I could get more if I waited and raised the turn if a low card came.

Is this a bad idea?

imported_leader · #4 06-27-2005, 02:02 PM

I think you should have 3-bet the flop. There is no reason to believe that you are not ahead here. If Mp1 had you beat here, he would likely not have CR to clear the field. So 3-bet and take control of the hand. If he caps, I would go into call down mode. Except of course if it comes 2 to you on the turn, you made a good fold there. In the future, post reads and cut the action off after you last decision so you don't get biased replies.

imported_leader · #5 06-27-2005, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I felt I was ahead after the flop, but I thought I could get more if I waited and raised the turn if a low card came.

Is this a bad idea?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Slowplaying this type of hand is a big mistake. You are not far ahead of opponents possible holdings and the board is very draw heavy. Also by calling, you put yourself in a spot where you are facing 2 on the turn with the best hand and have to fold. Push your edge on the flop.

flair1239 · #6 06-27-2005, 03:08 PM

EDIT: Scratched the 7 as field outs, had a brain fart...typing while on the phone

Depending on the player, I am not so quick to three-bet here. Joshua is correct in saying that there is a wide variety of hands that MP1 checkraises that you are ahead of. However depending on MP2, there are a ton of cards that you do not want to see.

Off hand if I were counting field outs against you a list I would make would be this (3) Aces (someone might be holding), (2) Queens (checkraise could indicate top pair), (4) Jacks, (4) Tens. Even your (2) Kings maybe tainted. So anywhere from 9-13 field outs are possible.

Malmuth has a hand simaliar to this in PE3, only it involved a set of nines.

I don't think waiting for a turn blank is the worst idea in the world. I probably would have played this hand the same if I though that MP2 was a reasonable player.

That said if MP2 is a donk, then I would three-bet. In some situations I view donks as just a paying spectator in the hand. So if MP2 is a donk, then raising for value becomes much more appealing as he may be drawing to 5 outs (or probably worse), some of which are tainted because you could counterfit two pair if he made it.

But in my mind it is still close, as I really think your equity in this pot goes up or down a lot depending on the turn card.

Oh and I agree with the fold.