How would you play this Hand? Doc AZ

[Doctavian]

Excellent post B Tish! Excellent post! Doc AZ



Dear B-Tish

Tish: ”Well, it seems there isn't any reason, given the read of the opponent, to credit him for K's.”

Exactly right! Well done! If you aren’t a cautious stud player you have no chance of winning. But if you always presume the worse hand scenario you can never be a big winner.

So what we do, when we analyze how we are going to act, is to first do a differential diagnosis of what our opponents handholding probably are. And that depends on his playing profile, and the applied card mathematics.


So in this case the differential diagnosis of “The Pounders hand” in order of the probability of his likely holdings would be:

1. Split Kings, kicker unknown
2. Big cards provably with a 2 flush
3. Big flush draw (with one dead card)
4. Door King with a pocket pair (the classic third street semi bluff raise)
5. Set of Kings (with a negative odds probability of about 80 to 1)
6. Bluff (unlikely because he is coming out from under the gun, and this move would be inconsistent with his typical actions.

Then as the hand develops, and as we gain more information, we adjust our differential diagnosis.

Point number 2:

B Tish “he's still got 3 over cards over my pair“

EXACTLY RIGHT! BUT he doesn‘t have an over card to your Ace kicker. In stud the ace is the “ultimate over card” because there is no possible way that it can be over carded.


We will go over that later when we discuss assigning power points when we doing our hand odds to pot odd profit potential calculations.

B Tish “So, I'm either slightly ahead or slightly behind”

Well done Tish! Well done! I’ll bet that 90% of players won’t even consider the fact that there is an approximate 15% chance that they are leading at this moment.

Tish “so it's either call or raise. Since I just don't know exactly where I am, I'd just call“

Right again Tish! I told you that you had the makings of a great player.

WHO IN THE HELL! Is even going to bring up the possibility of raising here? Only an excellent player would. BUT like you, he probably wouldn‘t for several reasons. And if he did, he should presume that it would be in his best interest to be the one to cap the betting against this Pounder!

Pounders and Jammers terrify 90% of poker players. But remember, to us, they are “our bread and butter” And what are the two basic counterstrategies when confronting Pounders. One is to let them build the pot and then check raise them on the river. And the other is to slap them hard in their face early, and then bleed them all the way to the river.


B Tish “what I catch on 4th and/or 5th can dictate whether proceeding is worth it,”

Right Right Right! Fourth Street is “Commitment ally in stud“! The key to winning stud is your third street decisions. BUT the key to making big money at stud is making the right fourth street decisions. But you are right again, B-Tish, about 10% of the time we are not going to commit our hand until fifth street.


Tish you have made some excellent observations. I told you before that I sensed the potential for greatness in you. If you are willing to put in the work you are going to win.


There are quite a few other points that we need to go over, but my Boston Terrier “Rascal” is angry that he hasn’t had his breakfast. And when he gets in one of his moods he just won’t stop barking.

I had one of those “great nights” at the casino last night, when just about everything seemed to go perfectly. As I was leaving I bumped into my old friend Dr. C (the noted card auther and gin master) who is also an excellent poker player. "C" had played all day, and only won $20. (OH THE HUMANITY OF IT ALL) So I put my arm on his shoulder and escorted him to the Casino bar, for an after session debriefing. I told the waitress that we both were going to need a stiff one. So we got two large diet Cokes on the rocks, each with a big splashs of Rose’s lime.


A wad of freshly won C notes in your pocket. A tall cold lime Coke in your hand. And a good friend to kibitz with at your side. Life doesn’t get much better than that! God I love this Game !

Thank you for your response,

Your Friend,

Doc AZ

[CJC]

[ QUOTE ]
WHO IN THE HELL! Is even going to bring up the possibility of raising here? Only an excellent player would.

[/ QUOTE ]

there are a lot of merits to raising here, however in the $3-6 structure it doesn't make sense, in other games it would, especially against a known stealer who may lay down the hand.

CJ

[dandy_don]

More please; that's one hell of a post. It's great to have you back Doc.

It's like we have a professor (PhD in Stud-ology? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) in the house.