JJ in a tough spot

[atnels]

Reraise? Assume he has exactly AK. Odds are with you no A or K will flop, then he'll fold.

If he caps, then you can go from there, but I think this is an easy reraise.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Reraise? Assume he has exactly AK. Odds are with you no A or K will flop, then he'll fold.

If he caps, then you can go from there, but I think this is an easy reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I reraise, it's going to be at least 21 bets on the flop, probably 28 since he'll cap and everybody's already called 2 cold. I'm going to have no way of protecting a vulnerable 2-outer, with a good chance of at least one overcard falling.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reraise? Assume he has exactly AK. Odds are with you no A or K will flop, then he'll fold.

If he caps, then you can go from there, but I think this is an easy reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]



If I reraise, it's going to be at least 21 bets on the flop, probably 28 since he'll cap and everybody's already called 2 cold. I'm going to have no way of protecting a vulnerable 2-outer, with a good chance of at least one overcard falling.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? You're playing for set value against this many players anyway. You either catch your 7:1 shot on the flop or you fold. I don't see the gray area, this seems like an easy re-raise.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
You either catch your 7:1 shot on the flop or you fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. Assuming I get capped and everybody stays to make it 28 bets to the flop, then the pot odds are 7:1. I'm 25:1 against making my set (2 cards out of 50 unseen). So, if I'm staying in it's for the implied odds if I make my set, and I don't like my chances of making up the difference postflop...if the flop is jack-high, I don't see anybody else being nutty enough to make up the difference, and if the flop isn't jack-high I don't see how I can play aggressively enough to make it up.

Tell me if I'm wrong.

(Oh, and Salty, I love the location, and I'm glad I'm not sitting in a poetry-appreciation chair.)

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me if I'm wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, yes. You're doing the math wrong.

Chances of making a set are 2/50 * 3 not just 2/50. You will make a set 12%, or once in every 8.333 times you have a pocket pair. This requires 7.33:1 pot odds (or at least implied odds) to make betting or raising profitable.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me if I'm wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, yes. You're doing the math wrong.

Chances of making a set are 2/50 * 3 not just 2/50. You will make a set 12%, or once in every 8.333 times you have a pocket pair. This requires 7.33:1 pot odds (or at least implied odds) to make betting or raising profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct, sir! That's precisely what I was doing. Ugh.

So, shouldn't I be calling instead of raising? Assuming that my read is good, I'm probably not ahead of the PFR at this point, so I don't want to chase anybody out since I need 7 people in to break-even. Right?

[blackize]

You probably have the best hand here by a long shot. You reraise and hope to flop all low cards or a set. This isn't standard logic, but with all these people in you can bet a lot of the overs you so fear are dead as it is.

I also think you are overestimating the raisers holdings. Unless you know him to be a solid player people at party .5/1 frequently raise any ace or any two broadway cards so you might be in better shape than you think and are up against something like AJ or KJ.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
You probably have the best hand here by a long shot. You reraise and hope to flop all low cards or a set. This isn't standard logic, but with all these people in you can bet a lot of the overs you so fear are dead as it is.

I also think you are overestimating the raisers holdings. Unless you know him to be a solid player people at party .5/1 frequently raise any ace or any two broadway cards so you might be in better shape than you think and are up against something like AJ or KJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

You read this part, right:

[ QUOTE ]
I trust UTG+2's raise to be at least AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean, if you're just going to throw my read out the window, then sure, I'm re-raising here. But then what's the point of providing reads?

The worst hand I saw the guy PFR with today was AQs. Historically I've seen him raise AK/KK/AQs preflop.

As for having the best hand by a long shot, I'd very much like to see your math on that; please show your work for partial credit. Here's mine:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 51.7576 % [ 00.51 00.00 ] { AA-QQ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 2: 48.2424 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { JJ }

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
As for having the best hand by a long shot, I'd very much like to see your math on that; please show your work for partial credit. Here's mine:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 51.7576 % [ 00.51 00.00 ] { AA-QQ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 2: 48.2424 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { JJ }


[/ QUOTE ]

This would be a very relevant point if the PF raiser is your only opponent. You need to consider that both of you may be correct in raising this since you both have PF equity edges over the rest of the field.

It's an easy re-raise. If your post-flop play is good, you are making money by jamming this preflop. You want to pack the pot with as much dead money as possible.

don't make me come over there and read you some poetry. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[IPSC]

Could I ask how many hands you have on UTG-2?

Thanks