#1
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Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
me and my friend are arguing. He says getting roughly 12:1 I should call this. Im saying with turn action there is no way he doesnt at LEAST have a pair. DO I make a "Crying Call" here anyways? Villain is 28/8/25/25
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $3. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls. Flop: (8.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds. Turn: (5.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls. River: (13.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds. Final Pot: 14.16 BB |
#2
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
can your friend spell? cuz you can't. LOL (aruging)
i call. if you don't, re-read SSHE> |
#3
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
hmmmmm...I think I'd be more likely to fold if he had just called you 3-bet. Since he didn't he could have a smaller flush. Getting 14-1, I guess I'd call.
28/8/25/25 is 25 his AF that's almost unbelievable even over a small sample. If it is 25, you have to call. |
#4
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
[ QUOTE ]
can your friend spell? cuz you can't. LOL (aruging) i call. if you don't, re-read SSHE> [/ QUOTE ] 6 posts in and you're already throwing around bombs and justifying your positions be telling people to read SSHE. You have a bright future. |
#5
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
I would call because there is a very small chance he has a smaller flush, and you are getting a huge overlay. Call, cry, and hope.
You only have to be right 7% or so of the time. |
#6
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
I think there is a good chance he has a lower flush. I mean, considering the action on the turn, he was either already full, maybe had a queen and has quads, or has a flush. You pretty much have to call.
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#7
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (8.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds. [/ QUOTE ] I think you can safely rule out the Q here. The flat call says "drawing hand" to me. Thinking about it more, I think 66 is a possibility. A flat call gives you a chance to catch a spade. [ QUOTE ] Turn: (5.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] Unless UTG is suicidal (or has 66), you're way ahead here. Also, this tells me - again - he doesn't have a Q. [ QUOTE ] River: (13.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds. [/ QUOTE ] Hmm. A hard one. Either you're way ahead, or totally destroyed. Like I said before, I'm betting against the Q. 14:1 pot odds make it a tough lay-down. I call. I'm thinking he has a lower flush, but if I'm beat I want to see that 66! |
#8
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.
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#9
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?
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#10
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Re: Folding nutflush on river, -ev??
[ QUOTE ]
Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush? [/ QUOTE ] Especially since you showed aggression on the flop. Thus, he probably puts you on a Q and doesn't worry about the fact that he doesn't have the nut flush. |
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