What's to stop...

[WarDekar]

...anyone from using this method in sports betting:
Bet 1 unit. If you lose, bet 2, lose again 4, etc., everytime you win you start back at 1. I know in theory limits will break you, but I usually only bet $20 on games, so really why not do it? There essentially is no limit at where I bet (at least not feasable), and I'm over 50% on this past year in NCAA bball. I know statistically eventually this would cause me to go bankrupt in the longterm, but I think the most consecutive games I lost this year was 3? So why wouldn't this be a good system to use?

[Raken]

<font color="blue"> I usually only bet $20 on games
I think the most consecutive games I lost this year was 3
I'm over 50% on this past year in NCAA bball
Bet 1 unit. If you lose, bet 2, lose again 4, etc.
So why wouldn't this be a good system to use? </font color>

The primary danger is that the martingale might affect your handicapping. If you are a $20 flat bettor, you will probably find that you handicap the games differently when you have $160 or $320 riding on them. You may toss out winners that you would have bet at $20 but that don't look so good when it's time to put $320 on them. That could cause you frustration that will then affect your future handicapping.

Read the sports pages and you will see pitcher after pitcher remark that's it's a lot easier to pitch from the lead than from behind. With a martingale you're almost always behind.

As I have stated many times to gambling friends, the enemy is not the house, the enemy is yourself. If you can learn and overcome your own weaknesses, you'll be a winner.

I suggest you try a different approach. If you find yourself up, let's say, 10 units some time next season, press your bets. Move up to $40 and see how it feels. Bet with profits and use the effect of compounding against the house instead of against yourself. Contiue that way each season. If you are a good handicapper AND you can handle the increased pressure, you will find that soon you will be pulling in substantial amounts of money.

Raken

[WarDekar]

Yeah, sometimes I do step up to $30, $40, sometimes even $50 if I feel really good about a particular game.

As for being my own enemy, playing poker I know that this is most certainly the case [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]. BUT, as long as I handicap games beforehand and stick to what I originally set without worrying about how much I'm betting, this method would work it seems like? Maybe I'll try it with a smaller denomination (say $5) just to try it out and see how it goes at the start of the football season.

Part of my problem is I get too caught up in the money since I'm a college student and only have a few grand in savings, I'm basically playing with my spending money and if I lose a bunch I get mad instead of just writing it off to averaging.

[Wildbill]

I don't like this method you suggest because it could skew his results just from running lucky over a short time. I suggest to anyone that does want to step up their bets remember to calculate how likely you were to do that. Its simple, guess a realistic percentage of what you should be hitting and then count up how many bets you have made. For most players who aren't experienced to the point of having detailed records betting within a planned bankroll for at least 3 years, I suggest nothing more than 5% a play, which implies you hit 55% of your plays. If you make say 100 plays and find yourself up 10 units, I would guess its not sustainable. Wait until you have a gain that is theoretically sustainable. In this case if you say you will make .05 units every time you make a bet the math becomes easy, as in every 20 bets you make you should expect to be around 1 unit up. Just remember the principle of sustainability and then you won't get fooled by runs of good fortune, which might get you to increase your bets just as a run of bad fortune or just plain regression to the mean gets you. I think the method Raken describes here keeps a lot of otherwise talented people in the "minor leagues" because almost everyone uses the playing with the house money theory or they just get greedy and think if only I had doubled my bets look how much I would have won. Don't fall for this trap, go up only when both your bankroll and your amount of action dictates it.