To Passive with AA and a Scary Board

mscags · #1 06-24-2005, 06:07 PM

I thought about raising the river. What do you think?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

DBowling · #2 06-24-2005, 06:08 PM

i would not raise the river, but i would have 3bet the flop

JJH3984 · #3 06-24-2005, 06:11 PM

3 bet the flop and lead the turn

mscags · #4 06-24-2005, 06:23 PM

Whats your play if another club hits the turn?

Nick C · #5 06-24-2005, 06:59 PM

I think a turn stop-n-go is something to consider, as is a turn checkraise and a flop 3-bet.

Drawbacks to a flop 3-bet: Even if you're ahead, you may not have that much of an equity edge at this point. (K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], for instance, is not in bad shape against you at all. However, the fact that the pot is 3-way should help, in terms of the return you're getting on the bets you put in.) And you could be behind, though I'm certainly not assuming that yet. Also, if you are behind, what may happen is that MP2 or MP3 may just call your flop 3-bet with a flush and then pop you on the turn.

If you're ahead (and you probably are), your edge could be much bigger on the turn.

Drawbacks to a turn stop-n-go: If MP2 has a worse hand, he may just call. And he might've bet again with a worse hand anyway.

Drawbacks to a turn checkraise: It is an expensive way to chase a four-outer, if MP2 (or MP3) has a flush and will 3-bet your checkraise.

Anyway, I'm not really sure what line I like best. I would prefer to get another bet or raise in somewhere, though (so long as another club doesn't fall on the turn).

MHarris · #6 06-24-2005, 07:01 PM

I don't really like 3-betting the flop. Ther are a bunch of cards you'll hate seeing and you're OOP against 2 players. I'd call the flop raise with the intention of leading out on a safe turn card and re-evaluating from there.

Did you hve any reads on MP2 or MP3?

mscags · #7 06-24-2005, 07:03 PM

I think I like the turn check raise a lot as long as a scary card doesn't come off. By the time the turn comes my equity is a lot bigger if there is not a club out. If villian 3 bets than I can safely fold and consider I might be drawing dead or possibly to 1 out.

Nick C · #8 06-24-2005, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I like the turn check raise a lot as long as a scary card doesn't come off. By the time the turn comes my equity is a lot bigger if there is not a club out. If villian 3 bets than I can safely fold and consider I might be drawing dead or possibly to 1 out.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of points:

(1) There is some chance MP2 was raising with the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and will check the turn, given the chance. (I really should have mentioned that in my original post. However, for whatever reason, people don't seem to take free cards against me much.)

(2) I don't think you have an easy fold to a turn 3-bet, especially now that the board has paired. (You quite likely have 3-4 outs if behind, I think, though of course you could also have less.) Also, though, is there some chance MP2 would 3-bet a turn checkraise with, say, A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

mscags · #9 06-24-2005, 07:17 PM

What other outs am I drawing too, and I agree, he could reraise with the AK

Nick C · #10 06-24-2005, 07:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What other outs am I drawing to

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a flopped flush any ace or any 7 will give you the best hand. The A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] may be in someone's hand, though.

Against, say, 88, you are in worse shape and need an ace (and MP3 might hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

However, if you're ahead, you could have something like 37 outs. Once your checkraise gets 3-bet, the chances of this do go down significantly, of course.