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#11
06-24-2005, 02:36 PM
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Re: Twos full of aces
[ QUOTE ]
Under my experince there always seems be a cap no matter what once the board trips. [/ QUOTE ] i agree with this statement. people seem more willing to cap low overpairs once the board trips. 
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#12
06-24-2005, 02:44 PM
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Re: Twos full of aces
I would just call the river 3-bet as well. SB's line of check-call flop, check-raise turn is a standard line for a monster hand, so you might be putting him on 55 or 66 once he 3-bets the river. He knows you have an overpair and still re-raising the river; so he can often beat deuces-full here.
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#13
06-24-2005, 02:46 PM
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Re: Twos full of aces
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd just call the 3-bet on the river. Your play is so consistent with a big PP that when villain 3-bets the river you have to start worrying about 55, 66, or some random 2. [/ QUOTE ]
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#14
06-24-2005, 03:01 PM
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Re: Twos full of aces
[ QUOTE ]
pokerstove says my equity against the hand range TT-55 is 80% [/ QUOTE ] Ugh. DeuceKickerStove says my equity on the river against TT-77 is 100%. My equity against 66-55 is 0%. You can't credit all these holdings with the same likelihood. Hero's betting is consistent with AA/KK. Think about not just what villain might have, but how does his betting indicate what he thinks Hero has. If he's willing to 3Bet the river given the strong possibility that he puts Hero on AA/KK, the likelihood of 66,55 or a random deuce goes way up against the likelihood of TT-77.
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#16
06-24-2005, 04:03 PM
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Re: Twos full of aces
[ QUOTE ]
you dont think he would 3bet preflop with KK/QQ? As you said, its difficult without stats, but I think 33-TT are more likely than JJ and up. [/ QUOTE ] He probably would, but many players would try to slowplay it. The way he played it, calling your preflop raise, smooth calling the flop and raising the turn to me screams that he was trying to slowplay a big hand. Of course the type of person who would do this would also play 55 or 66 this way but likelyhood of those hands is less. And if this was a better player I think it would be much more likely that you are up against 77-TT. Although the 3-bet on the river certainly would make me question that.
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#17
06-24-2005, 05:51 PM
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Re: Twos full of aces
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [Hero's betting is consistent with AA/KK. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW: I believe Hero's betting is consistent with 99-AA. [/ QUOTE ] this is true, but i dont believe it changes anything given villians likely hand range
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