Hold Em Poker Quiz on Cardplayer.com

[Nate tha' Great]

If this is $30/$60 Party Poker then it's an easy 3-bet.

[scream1158]

I am still more of a low-limit player (2/4 6max usually) so I appreciate the input. I think this problem would rely heavily on observations of the player. If no information was known, I can see how calling the turn might be the best play.

[W. Deranged]

I think the best way to approach this hand is in terms of the four possible scenarios:

a. Your opponent actually has a better hand then you which he will four bet (most likely 10 10 or 88... KK a little less likely.

b. Your opponent has another decent hand that they will most likely call down two bets with if you three bet.

c. Your opponent is on some kind of hand that is worth the third bet (a semi-bluff hand, a semi-tricky or badly-played hand like JJ, etc...) but which your opponent will fold on the river.

d. A pure bluff which your opponent will fold if you raise.

For simplicity we will assume a pure bluffing opponent will always bluff the river if you check behind and a semi-bluffing (case c) player will never bluff the river if you check behind. (Not a hugely ambitious assumption, because sometimes pure bluffers will give up once you call the turn and sometimes semi-bluffers will miss). We will also assume that the probably of getting sucked out on is small enough that we can disregard it for simplicity (it will be largely balanced out by the probability of you sucking out when you're behind). Lastly, we assume your opponent isn't a pure chump and will four bet the turn if you three-bet when they have a hand that is better than yours.

Your EV of raising compared to calling (namely, the difference in bets you make if you call) is approximately:

-2P(a) + P(b) + P(c) - P(d)

Namely, raise if:

P(b)+ P(c)> 2P(a) + P(d)

Basically, you should only not raise if you have a reason to think that a or d is particularly large: namely, your opponent is a total rock who would not raise on the turn without a very large hand OR your opponent is a real aggro who would raise the turn with nothing.

Against normal players, a raise is clearly the way to go, in my opinion, because there are so few hands that beat you that P(a) will be naturally quite low and because you will rarely see d except in cases where you've already identified the player as a bluffer.

I doubt any of the symbolic notation helps much, but it is useful for me in working out the situation.

[Mempho]

Assume that you evaluate that you are ahead 65% of the time and see if you come up with the same answer I did (that it was positive EV of 0.11BB to raise in this situation...which I estimated down to 0.08 due to losing the river bluff if it is a stone cold bluff. I included his "average" number of outs if it is a semi-bluff and the AA's probable number of outs if the AA is behind here.

[joker122]

calling and checkraising the river is viable.

[A_C_Slater]

KT or K8 are also possible if the opponent is a donk.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning on the website is:

Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised it wasn't "fold".

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning on the website is:

Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised it wasn't "fold".

[/ QUOTE ]thats what i was gonna say...

[BarronVangorToth]

Reraise, this is 2005, not 1985.

Not raising here you're missing a bet far more often then you're giving one up.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[helpmeout]

Quizes are mostly a waste of time because it depends on the opponent.

Sometimes the opponent is fairly tight and his range of hands will mostly beat yours so you call down.

Some opponents will semibluff and fire another bullet on the river if you just call the turn.

Some TAGish opponents will raise the turn fold to a 3bet so calling and checkraising the river is usually better/ or betting out.

Some players are just very loose and aggressive and will call your 3 bet and a river bet as well with a King.

So it depends.