QQ against thinking TAG

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
release

[/ QUOTE ]

Not gonna happen, which is another reason I'm not betting the turn, because I think we could safely fold. At this point, I can get to showdown for the same price. I don't need to know if my hand is good here or not. If he checks to me on the river, I'm betting.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
then his bet is not "protecting" anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, and I took that back...but you were probably typing this. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I can't think of any situation where you cap a flop when OOP and check the turn, unless you have a great hand and are convinced that opponent will bet if checked to and pay you off after you raise. Otherwise I think you're missing out on bets. The c/r is the ultimate sign of strength. I'd rather bet, have him raise, 3 bet, and now he pays me off. Or bet, and have him call down...either way.

[ThisHo]

For what its worth, a friend of mine posted this hand in Mid-Hi about not capping preflop with AA when HU:
http://tinyurl.com/8hghq

so, a thinking TAG may not cap with AA and then check/raise the flop and some well respected posters on that board said it made sense.

OP here has a read that villain is TAG with some trickiness. Which I translate to "could smooth call PF w/ KK or AA."

My opinion here:

I really like the check behind on the turn. Hands that you are losing too are very likely to c/r and now you have to pay 3 bets to see a showdown (or you have to fold and let a nice pot get away) AND hands that you are ahead of are more likely to bluff the river where they might not call a turn bet.

But I'll keep reading to find out where I'm wrong.
ThisHo

[MHarris]

[ QUOTE ]
the question is... can you draw sufficent inference from villain's not capping preflop to say that he is unlikely to hold AA/KK or is he tricky enough that he will underplay AA/KK?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a reasonable chance he'd smooth-call with AA/KK preflop here and go to war on the flop.

I think that while he's capable of check-raising this flop with AK, he'll never cap it OOP, at least not against obvious strength from a tight player.

[MHarris]

[ QUOTE ]
If I capped the flop and another rag fell, I want to protect my hand with a bet.

To me, you've got JJ (a lot of players will not cap this oop) here or AA,KK whiffing a c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt like villain's turn check indicated that he felt he was either in a WA/WB situation (like AA/KK fearing JJ) or a WA/WA situation (like JJ hoping to get in a c/r but not too concerned about giving a free card).

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I felt like villain's turn check indicated that he felt he was either in a WA/WB situation (like AA/KK fearing JJ) or a WA/WA situation (like JJ hoping to get in a c/r but not too concerned about giving a free card).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what it looks like to me, too. A good player isn't checking AJ on the turn here.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that while he's capable of check-raising this flop with AK, he'll never cap it OOP, at least not against obvious strength from a tight player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good... so then you have put him directly on AA/KK/QQ/AJ and the latter I suspect maybe as a lesser possiblitiy from a hand reading standpoint rather than a combinatorial standpoint. That said...

AA, 6 ways
KK, 6 ways
QQ, 1 way
AJ, 12 ways discounted for reads maybe worth 10.

In any event, you then feel that you are behind and want to see showdown as cheap as possible. Seems fine, then, to me.

But, if AK were any possibility then I think that the "numbers" seem to require a bet on the turn.

Can anybody chime in on whether my analysis, above, has any merit?

[MHarris]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anybody chime in on whether my analysis, above, has any merit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it does. I ran the #'s in my head during the flop betting, and realized I was in real bad shape better than 50% of the time. Don't forget to include the 3 JJ combos also.