Bellagio 15/30 AA UTG

[J.A.Sucker]

Ni han.

[illguitar]

Let's first look at what he could be holding...

AA- Preflop raise, and flop bet call make okay sense. The turn seems right too. I bet the river would get checked behind. Highly Unlikely

KK- Preflop raise works. Flop bet and call could be an option, if he chooses to slowplay after your checkraise. I might. The Jack on the turn gets scary and it's time to raise here. Of course he bets the river. Makes Sense

QQ- The preflop raise, again, works. The flop bet and call makes sense here. When the jack comes it gives him an open-ender. Good time for a semi-bluff. He bets the river out of desperation, although he might check it through depending on the kind of player he is. Highly Likely

JJ- Preflop and flop work here. Turn of course wakes him up. River needs to be bet. Probably

TT- Preflop 3-bet is possible, although it sounds like he's not all that aggressive. Flop play could be him trying to trap. Turn is scary for this hand so he speeds up. He bets tens full on the river. Good chance

AK- Perfect for preflop, perfect for flop, turn raise would be questionable in my eyes. River bet is a must. Another possibility

I can't see him betting anything else. Let's look at the math of it.

1 way to make AA
1 way to make KK
6 ways to make QQ
3 ways to make JJ
3 ways to make TT
4 ways to make AK

You lose 11 ways, win 6 ways and split 1 way. Making this 10.75:1 an EASY call, it only seems hard.

Preflop: You know you have the best hand, AND more importantly this guy doesn't sound swift enough to have to confuse. Gotta 4-Bet.

Flop: Come out betting, Raise a raise, call if he 4-bets.
Check-raising isn't good, even by calling the 3-Bet preflop. Represent a King.

Turn- Bet and call a raise, Check fold if he 4-Bet the flop.

River- Check-call, it's all you can do and you did it. Hope he has QQ. Not all that unlikely. Not bad though.

-Daver

Anybody really disagree?

[felson]

Thanks for the analysis; I thought along similar lines (regarding his range of hands, not regarding the play of the hand). You didn't include AQ, which fits with his line of holdings and has me buried. Also, I very much doubt that he raises the turn with QQ and bets the river with it after I checkraise the K-high flop (and AA/QQ/stone bluff are the only ways I get to win any of the pot). These two factors make calling the river less clearcut.

[felson]

After he made the river bet, I sighed and said, "I really can't see what I'm beating here." Then I tossed in my chips. He turned over AKo and I quietly mucked my cards facedown.

When I discussed the hand with bicyclekick, he said to check/call the turn. I think this line has a lot of merit.

After the hand, I chatted with the 2+2'er who was sweating me. He said, "I don't get the preflop/flop play. After you checkraise the flop, your opponent knows where you are anyway!"

I said, "Maybe it wasn't the best play; I don't know. But if my opponent knew where I was, then why did he raise the turn with AK?"

[J.A.Sucker]

FWIW, I hate check/calling the turn, becauase people will check behind more than you want, often with a slew of outs. On the river, you just call and pray that you're somehow beating JT or some desperate attempt to pick up the pot. Folding should never enter your mind.

[The Truth]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I hate check/calling the turn, becauase people will check behind more than you want, often with a slew of outs. On the river, you just call and pray that you're somehow beating JT or some desperate attempt to pick up the pot. Folding should never enter your mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, plus check calling the turn makes me feel dirty..
I agree that you can fold the river here.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I hate check/calling the turn, becauase people will check behind more than you want, often with a slew of outs. On the river, you just call and pray that you're somehow beating JT or some desperate attempt to pick up the pot. Folding should never enter your mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. The described player would almost never play JT like this. In fact, I don't think he plays any hands you beat the way he did.

I don't get fancy with AA very often like that, but cmon, when you get 3 bet by the type of player who 3 bet and the board is KTJ and you have AA, I don't feel all that great.

The hand range i have this guy on is probably AQs, AK, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, mb 99 and mb 88. A couple smaller pairs, but he doesn't play them the way he did postflop.

[felson]

Regarding the preflop action, a long time ago I was impressed by this thread and wanted to try it out.

http://tinyurl.com/dwbq2

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
The hand range i have this guy on is probably AQs, AK, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, mb 99 and mb 88. A couple smaller pairs, but he doesn't play them the way he did postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I exclude 99 and 88 because he presumably wouldn't bet the river with them, if this were his range of hands and if he'd play QQ this way on the river (a big if), the king on the river makes him only a 13-6 dog on the river FWIW.

AK = 4 ways

KK = 1 way

QQ = 6 ways

JJ = 3 ways

TT = 3 ways

AQs = 2 ways

We probably should include AA as a posibility since we're considering KK too.

[mscags]

I like leading the flop and calling his raise and then check raising the turn. Check and call the river has some merit, but I have to imagine that you're beat here.