Worst Move Ever - calling a shorty's push with 2/7 with 3:1 pot odds?

[trdi]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, but if anyone wants to show me another way to do the math here, I'd greatly appreciate it.
ts-

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Well, you made those pecentages (85 and 15) so that it is profitable for you to call. Button was TIGHT and shortstacked. You had a TIGHT image and raised from early position. What do you think he put you on? He put you on a big big hand. And he went all-in AND he expected a call from that big big hand. I would put him on:
- AA or KK: 60%
- QQ, JJ, TT: 20%
- AK : 20%

[RobGW]

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I am trying to move away from the Aleo guide's formulaic strategy, so I am trying to put in some more early-mid position raises in the earlier levels. Sometimes the cards don't always cooperate, but since I'm trying to move away from my tendencies to play very tight in the early rounds, I sometimes throw in raises without the best of cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can understand your wanting to expand past the basic guide but this is not the way. If you want to expand your game, call with suited connectors in LP, call with 22 in EP, raise when its folded to you in LP with a med PP or 2 broadways. Go all in when folded to you on the button when shortstacked. Go over the top of one limper when you are in the BB. Just don't raise in MP with 72. What works for Carlos Mortenson on the WPT is not going to work on the internet.

[freemoney]

lol the percentages with hands is very funny, if its not intended to be a joke then quit.

[trdi]

Ok, I might be too harsh there. I should let at least 10% for worse cards. But 85 for overcards and 15 for overpair?! No way. What would you give to him? I'm definetly staying with 50%+ for JJ+.

EDIT: Oh, only now I saw, he was a loose player. I read that sentence wrong. I thought he was very tight. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Because an allin of a tight player after EP raise of a tight player would definetly mean my percentages coould be correct.

[microbet]

Number of big blinds isn't really the measure of how short shorty is. He has 340 and is loose and maybe steaming and will push with a very wide range of hands pretty much all of which are ahead of you.

Being in the blinds is certainly a factor in deciding how likely someone is to call you, but not the only one.

This one guy is not a huge factor in itself, but pretty much the stars have to line up pretty straight to go for an early position blind steal in level 3. IMHO, of course.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, but if anyone wants to show me another way to do the math here, I'd greatly appreciate it.
ts-

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you made those pecentages (85 and 15) so that it is profitable for you to call. Button was TIGHT and shortstacked. You had a TIGHT image and raised from early position. What do you think he put you on? He put you on a big big hand. And he went all-in AND he expected a call from that big big hand. I would put him on:
- AA or KK: 60%
- QQ, JJ, TT: 20%
- AK : 20%

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the button was not tight - as I wrote in the OP, the villian had played about 10 of the first 20 hands, so he wasn't tight at all. Furthermore, he was playing some of those hands by cold-calling raises, not by being the first one in the pot. Yeah, I made up the 85% and 15%, but I thought I had good reason to do so.

ts-

[The Student]

Thanks for the response, Microbet. I hear ya about the stars aligning properly for a level 3 steal from EP. I definitely won't be trying this again for a while. Although some of the table chat that came from this hand was almost worth the buy-in alone.

"PhilStubbs: so wrong
SUPERjoe77: nice hand a-holee
sports2266: are you stupid"

ts-

[Insty]

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so if they're paying attention, they would not think I'm loose.

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There's your problem right there. They are not.
And even if they are they probably figure you must be bluffing anyway.