AK, check call on river?

krazyace5 · #1 06-21-2005, 03:44 PM

After the river play I was thinking I shoulda checked call after it was to late, anyone play this different? Didnt have a good read on villain, weak tight after a few hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

BB ($46.67)
Hero ($71.5)
MP ($49.9)
CO ($5)
Button ($80.6)
SB ($46.53)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, Button calls $3, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button calls $5.

Turn: ($16.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12.

River: ($40.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $25, Button raises to $60.6 (All-In),

boxedIn · #2 06-21-2005, 08:57 PM

This is a tough one and, unfortunately, I don't think you're going to be able to get an answer from anyone as it seems completely read dependent.

There are a few possibilities here all of which seem equally possible knowing nothing about villian. First of all, he has something like AQ/AJ and is paying you off. Second of all, he has a flush draw that missed. Third of all, he's hiding a set or two pair (most likely a set).

Seeing as how you see his play as weak tight, then a check on the river would lose value against AQ as he'd check behind but call your bet. It would lose/gain nothing against a missed flush draw. And it would probably save you some money against a set/two pair.

The way you bet out, you'll be gaining on AQ/AJ, losing/gaining nothing on a missed flush draw, and losing either a) just as much as you would have lost if you had checked (I'm betting a set would bet out ~$25 here) or b) nothing, if you think you can fold to this bet.

So, it depends on how likely you distribute the percentages to those three possibilities. In my opinion, if he is truly weak tight, I might like a bet of a little bit less on the river ($17?) which should get you paid off a decent amount of time, and you can fold to any raise as a weak-tight player is not liable to make a raise there without having you beat. A check loses too much value from the multitude of times AQ/AJ is paying you off.

That said, this seems like a set and unless I knew the player was capable of bluffing out a missed flush draw, I think you have to fold.

Mike Cuneo · #3 06-21-2005, 11:03 PM

I would push the turn.