Hockey - Jun 2 - Picks

[Raken]

Jun 2 - Picks

Take Devils +1.5 -320

Devils have scored 2 legitimate goals in each of 1st 3 games.
If trend continues, Ducks -1.5 have to score 4 to cover.

Ducks have not scored a legitimate goal in 9 regulation periods.

Ducks have the advantage of desperation and renewed hope, so be careful on your bet size.

Post Season: 7-7-1 Units - 3.35
Reg. Season: 33-17-5 Units + 7.80

Raken

[Raken]

Jun 2 - Results

0-0, End of Regulation, Winner

<font color="blue"> Ducks have not scored a legitimate goal in 9 regulation periods. </font color>

Now it's 12 regulation periods.

Post Season: 8-7-1 Units - 2.35
Reg. Season: 33-17-5 Units + 7.80

Raken

[mikelow]

I took the under, figuring both goalies would play better.

Now were both Duck goals in regulation in Game 3 lucky, not just the "longshot?"

[Wildbill]

I felt very certain about this one being a 1-0 game, everything set up perfectly for it and it played out exactly as I felt it would with the Ducks penchant for dramatic goals driven by their more aggressive game coming through against likely Devils stay-at-home effort.

Going forward I think more of the same probably is in store. I said before the weekend this could become the Ducks series with just a break or two and that is exactly what happened, a couple soft goals and now they have the momentum and somehow Devs are going to have to regain their aggressive touch. I suspect they are going to start feeling it, when they left town people were sure the Cup was going to be theirs in short order and that the Ducks weren't showing up. Now the Ducks have them playing on their heels and probably into those 1-0 or 2-1 games that the Ducks love and an offensively talented team like the Devs normally would hate. No one cares how you win right now, the Ducks would have gladly taken the win if it came off that crazy bounce off Brodeur's glove, but the games are played to one teams clear advantage right now. If the Devs really have a big edge at home and it means something they are going to have to do something with it in the first period of game 5. They have to reassert themselves and stop the play at home or else I like the Ducks chances a lot.

I have a hard time feeling out the next game, as certain as I felt a scenario coming in this one, I feel uncertain about the next one. Lets see how the energy plays out in the first round. Lets see if the edge mentioned by another poster, of the rested Ducks, does show if its a tight battle. Most of all lets see if JS is in a zone again because he looked damn near unbeatable during the last half of this game and that is the type of zone that other teams dread, especially since he only has to stay in it 2 or 3 more games. Brodeur doesn't look as solid to me, he looks every so slightly out of step, a quarter-step off. His reaction on the two overtime goals looked like a man without his confidence at 100%. Immediately he knew he was beat and looked back. A goalie in a zone rarely has that look, if the puck goes by they have an almost infallible assumption that the shot missed the net and they are looking for the puck so they can set up for the next shot. Having played goalie for 5 years and knowing that feeling I can tell you that is how you can tell who is playing well, when you feel your angles are covered and that you are making yourself so big that they don't have anything to shoot at except 5-hole. JS looks like he is in that zone for now, will Marty get back to it?

For those reasons if I had to pick it I would say Ducks 2-1, but I don't feel confident enough to back it without seeing what happens early on in the game. Maybe I will take a shot at an in game bet if the game is where I have a feel for it after a period.

[bentlyman]

Take Jersey, the next two games and you will win money. And the under. Trust. [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

[Raken]

<font color="blue">Now were both Duck goals in regulation in Game 3 lucky, not just the "longshot?" - mikelow</font color>

Yes.
Brodeur screwded up the clearing pass. From the NHL recap:

<font color="red">Ozolinsh intercepted Brodeur's clearing attempt along the right boards and sent the puck toward the net. It hit Devils defenseman Tommy Albelin and deflected to the edge of the left circle, where Anaheim's Marc Chouinard swept it past the left pad of Brodeur.</font color>

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[Wildbill]

Intercepting a bad clearing pass makes a goal lucky? I think not. Soft goals yes, lucky goals I don't agree with it.

Lucky is when it hits the boards on a dump in and comes flying towards the net on a bad bounce and then off your glove into the net, it that one had gone in last night, that would have been a lucky goal. Lucky could be when it hits the goalie in the back of his pads after being sent in behind the net. Lucky is when a pass hits a skate and changes direction right into the goal. When someone throws the puck towards the net and it ends up on the stick of a teammate who scores that is not lucky, no matter how many weird bounces it takes. Its the old adage and its more true than ever, send more pucks towards the net and your chances of scoring increase.