can you be consistent winner with sports betting? - Page 2

Indiana · #11 06-19-2005, 03:39 PM

Oh sure the NBA is beatable. Much more so than baseball.

Indiana

sublime · #12 06-19-2005, 05:39 PM

In the book "Gambling for a Living" Sklansky says that Poker, Blackjack, and Sports Betting are the best 3 areas for gambling long term.

that sklanksy is a genius. these are the only forms of gambling that CAN be beatin long term.

mrbaseball · #13 06-19-2005, 05:57 PM

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Baseball is a crapshoot. There is more luck involved. IMO there are too many variables. Psychology plays a big role in baseball, and physical ability isn't as important. Add to that relief pitchers, weather, umpires, etc., and it's just too much goin on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough you can easily boil all of that stuff down into one easy number. In my mind baseball betting is the only sport that makes sense and can be easily solved matematically. The ignorance of public perception coupled with the large amount of games played daily assures that there is almost always gonna be some edge out there every single day if you learn how to uncover it.

To each his own. There is some variance to be sure but if you understand the game along with it's odds and probabilites along with an understanding of moneyline math, baseball becomes extremely plus ev. Just don't get caught up in trying to predict winners. Stick with the teams that are undervalued in the line.

Indiana · #14 06-19-2005, 06:20 PM

lol...take blackjack off the list...you cannot beat it in the year 2005. What about playing pool or magic? Other forms of gambling that are profitable do exist.

Indy

Jinx230 · #15 06-19-2005, 06:50 PM

Can you elaborate a bit on beating NBA sports betting? What are the major aspects to pay attention to in finding an edge out there? I would think injuries, streaks, and players fighting with coaches would be the biggest red flags. NBA players with egos can really mess up a team from night to night.

Indiana · #16 06-20-2005, 10:45 AM

I know that the NBA can be beat because I follow the best handicappers in the business and perform statistical tests on their results. Honestly, I am only a good handicapper in boxing and football. I couldn't beat the NBA myself but if you are looking for a guy who has beaten it year after year then go to sharpsportsbetting.com and go to the free NBA forum (dont cost anything). There is a guy there named Pythagoras and he is without a doubt the best there is. He is around 56% over 1000 games so his results are statistically significant. He should have some good picks for the last game or two of the finals.

Indiana

ThaHero · #17 06-21-2005, 12:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Baseball is a crapshoot. There is more luck involved. IMO there are too many variables. Psychology plays a big role in baseball, and physical ability isn't as important. Add to that relief pitchers, weather, umpires, etc., and it's just too much goin on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough you can easily boil all of that stuff down into one easy number. In my mind baseball betting is the only sport that makes sense and can be easily solved matematically. The ignorance of public perception coupled with the large amount of games played daily assures that there is almost always gonna be some edge out there every single day if you learn how to uncover it.

To each his own. There is some variance to be sure but if you understand the game along with it's odds and probabilites along with an understanding of moneyline math, baseball becomes extremely plus ev. Just don't get caught up in trying to predict winners. Stick with the teams that are undervalued in the line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to play baseball on a pretty competitive level so I know what it takes to win, what goes on, etc. I still don't feel confident enough to pick winners at this game. As the season started I made some "fake bets" or bets that I would make if I had the cajones to bet on baseball and so far I'd be losing. I've decided to stay away.

This isn't to say that baseball can't be beaten. I'm sure it can. With all these games plus the playoffs, there are plenty opportunities. I wouldn't go as far to say it's extremely plus EV though.

Football is basically just brute force and physical attributes. You don't have to worry too much about a certain hitter "owning" a pitcher, and coming in at the bottom of the 9th to take your win away or something like that. Minor exception- Monte Kiffin and the Bucs own Michael Vick. I think I will bet on the Bucs against Vick as long as he is in the league lol.

I'm sticking to football and boxing, with the occassional dabbling in basketball. I wish I knew something about intercontinental soccer, since Indiana suggested it. If you can beat baseball at a high rate, however, then more power to you.

Phatferd · #18 06-21-2005, 03:03 AM

I think there are some pretty odd lines in the WNBA and have been taking advantage of them. Take the Conn and LA game tonight for example. Conn got +4.5 points and they are the best team in the league. This is just an example. Watch it a while and see how some of these lines are messed up.

I started betting WNBA when I went to MajorWager.com and followed what a guy named Yzerman#19...He knows his stuff. He is like 14-5 this year and I am 5-1 since betting on it.

Tha Villain · #19 06-21-2005, 03:07 AM

Sklansky wrote that book for BEGINNING BETTORS, not people like us who live in Casino's and Online Gambling Forums.

Ever wonder why, when you go to Vegas, the place is overrun with slot machines? But most places have some tiny little Poker Room? Or why there's only one little small Sportsbook Room? Because the MAJORITY of people play Slots and have no idea that it's the WORST game to EVER play. Except maybe Roulette. And people LOVE Craps, but you won't win long term with that either.

I've read about three or four Books/Sites/Articles that say the only way to win long term at gambling are Sports Betting, Poker, and sometimes Black Jack. But now they have these two and three deck Blackjack shufflers so it's almost impossible to count cards anymore. So BJ is starting to go -EV.

Tha Villain · #20 06-21-2005, 03:24 AM

Forgot to talk about the individual sports...

NFL is a good sport to win at if you know your stuff. For the NFL things don't vary much. If a team is weak against the run and they are playing the best run team in the league they will most likely lose. But sometimes the public will ignore this and put money on the favorite, thus moving the line in your favor as mentioned. Or as my bro mentioned, Vick vs. the Bucs (or any complex defense) is definitely Bucs. Peyton Manning vs. Patriots is the Pats, but Manning is so beloved by the public the Colts are constant favorites vs. Pats. Also, there's only been one undefeated team in NFL History. So if you catch a team on the run they are BOUND to lose some time. If you pick the right matchup (like my friend picked Phins over Pats last year) you can WIN BIG! Little nuances like that make football +EV. The only bad thing about football is that it only takes place on Sundays, with one Monday night game.

The NBA is a great sport also. There are games just about every day in the regular season, and it has less variants than you might think. For one, there are only 5 starters and 12 players in total, which is the least people involved for any of the major team sports. Most bench players never see time, so it's really about the starters and the top two or three bench players. There's no weather conditions, etc.

With MLB, it's just too many things involved. The line-ups change daily. Players go through hot and cold streaks. Even the starting pitchers aren't guaranteed up until game time. You have the Bullpen blowing wins, you have star pitchers like, I dunno, say Randy Johnson in his prime, getting hammered in the first inning for 8 runs because he woke up on the wrong side of the bed. Someone said it earlier. Baseball is a Crapshoot. In that book Sklansky said to never bet on baseball long term for value. Baseball is -EV and will end up costing you money in the long run. But if you have a way to do it, congrats.

A few more things on Sports Betting in general.

Don't be afraid to skip games. If you don't like a game or situation, you have the option to pass on it. That's what makes Sports Betting so beautiful. If you sit down at a Poker or Blackjack table, you're locked in for every hand that comes down. Even when you're on the blinds you might get 72o and have to fold it. You're giving money away for not participating. Don't get me wrong we know Poker is profitable, I'm just saying. You don't have the option to "pass" in other games.

Also, in Poker and BJ you're limited in your earning potential. If you're at a 10/20 game, that's all you can bet. But if I want to drop $100 instead of my usual $50 on a bet, I can do it.

You could have literally walked into the Casino last week, put $50,000 on Kevin McBride, and won $350,000. In one night. 6 Rounds. 18 minutes. I dunno if you can win $350,000 on Poker in 18 minutes. Maybe if you're in some high stakes game, but then you'd have to risk more than $50,000.

Sports Betting is very profitable and any sharp person can easily go 50-60% overall if they know which bets to make and which ones to stay away from. The majority of professional sports handicappers are in the 53-57% range, while the best are at the 58-60% range.