Too Aggressive?

WSOP Bound · #1 06-20-2005, 09:46 PM

I'm trying to get used to pushing my draws, but felt like I spewed chips on this hand. On the flop I didn't want to raise at first because I didn't want to blow away the field. Once CO raises I am in perfect position to trap the field for at least on more and possibly two more. Is this over the top, or do I just need to grow some cajones and get over my weak tendencies?

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, Button folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (11.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero ???

Do I call or raise here?

shadow29 · #2 06-20-2005, 09:49 PM

Call.

milesdyson · #3 06-20-2005, 09:52 PM

flop action is fine, just call the turn.

WSOP Bound · #4 06-20-2005, 10:17 PM

I think I found the flaw in my line of thinking regarding the turn. I was assuming that if the river brings home the flush I will not see much action at all. But looking at it again I probably count on CO raising the river and use this to check-raise him on the river and likely pick up two from the entire field. Conversly if I check-raise the turn I have to lead the river since the chance that it will get checked through is too high.

Checkraising the turn:
4(-2) + 1(12) = 4BB

Checkraising the river:
4(-1) + 1(12) = 8BB

I know that there are some assumptions built in here (i.e. that my flush won't be a loser if it comes in, that CO will never check it through and that the entire field will call), but they seem to be offset by other possibilities (i.e. I'm not counting any eights as an out which seems wrong, it's unlikely but the nines might also be outs, CO might decide that the flush doesn't scare him and 3-bet the river, etc.) Is this thought process even close enough to be valid?

Duerig · #5 06-20-2005, 11:03 PM

I think I would raise the flop the first time around. And I might lead the turn, you have a ton of outs and there are a lot of people in this pot.

WSOP Bound · #6 06-20-2005, 11:11 PM

Can you please explain why? I'm sure it should be obvious, but I'm a bit of a newb. Thanks!

AngelicPenguin · #7 06-20-2005, 11:20 PM

I think your line was fine. Your only real chance of winning was your flush draw, so forcing the field to call two would be a mistake. When you have a flush draw with overcards, then the raise would be appropriate, to clean up your overcard outs.

Duerig · #8 06-20-2005, 11:28 PM

You can raise the flop for value if you get > 2 others to come along with you. That is, the flush will come in around 33% of the time and you are putting in less than 33% of the money. On the turn you have 9 outs to a flush + 2 8s and 2 non heart 9s. This is 13 outs, so you'll hit a winning hand ~ 1/4 of the time. There are only 5 people on this turn so I guess the turn bet isn't strictly for value (unless everyone comes along) but I think it's close enough, considering that you might fold some people, that a bet isn't a terrible idea.

Actually the more I think about it, the more I'm not sure about my turn play. However, I would definitely not check raise.

WSOP Bound · #9 06-20-2005, 11:51 PM

If I raise the flop the first time around I will likely have the two callers that I need for value, although I think I need to discount my flush slightly since it could be beat. If I just call I should get more to come along which will add more value to the bigger streets. I opted to raise the second time around for exactly what you stated with the added factor that everyone still in would now certainly call.

On the flop my odds are 1.8:1 against hitting my flush by the river. With the 8 on the turn I pick up probably another 2-3 outs. If I lead and CO bets this will likely cut down the field making my initial bet a mistake. If I check and he bets then most players are going to call. I agree that a c/r is out of line here. I might as well save that option for the river after I see if I hit or not.

AngelicPenguin · #10 06-20-2005, 11:57 PM

I generally don't worry much about discounting a flush. Flush over flush is pretty rare. I worry about it when I'm getting pushed back hard.