How many bets on river?

Dante · #1 05-28-2003, 04:04 AM

Was in an online $10-20 a couple of days ago, I get J [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] UTG. I raise, 1 MP caller, and BB calls (BB just sat down, I'd never played with him before).

Flop is T62, rainbow.

BB checks, I bet, both call.

turn is a J, board is totally rainbowed now.

BB bets into me, I raise, MP folds, BB 3bets and I cap (4 bet cap).

River pairs the 6 giving a board of T62J6.

He bets, I raise, he 3bets...I put him on 22, 66, or TT (don't think anyone would give/take that much heat with just a Jack and the 6 pairing counterfits two pair in the overpairs favor).

Would anyone play the turn differently?
If not, how far on the river?

Dante

elysium · #2 05-28-2003, 04:40 AM

hi dante
understand that the BB is getting 5-1 on the pre-flop. also notice that he may be calling with many hands because his bet, both pre-flop and flop, closes the action. 62s is possible. he could have anything, and still not have gotten out of line, even on the turn; he reads you for an over-pair. take it 4-bets on the river if he will keep up with you. no reason to slow-down.

Ginogino · #3 05-28-2003, 09:09 AM

Dante:
If the only hands he could hold are TT,22, or 66 (and fwiw,I agree with Elysium that he might hold others) there are seven possible card combinations that make TT,22, or 66. So you're getting 6 to one odds that you win. Then the question is: how much do you want to risk getting 6-to-1? $40? $100? The mortgage? Whatever you're comfortable with, that's how much to risk.

Gino

angry young man · #4 05-28-2003, 08:18 PM

why can't he have T6, J6, JT, or even something like QJs or AJs? Would he really bet out his flopped set when something as inocuous as the J hits the turn? I think the play is inconsistent with 22, 66, TT, or even T6 (if he was any good that hand should be checkraised here, a bold assumption). I'd easily go 4 bets and call 5 but probably not 6 bet because I'm a wuss.

NutNoPair · #5 05-28-2003, 08:46 PM

I'd feel very good about putting four bets in on the river (This is the cap at any internet room I have played in). You're opponent has shown strength, but he has also shown the ability to go four big bets without the nuts.

Inthacup · #6 05-28-2003, 09:04 PM

Definitely cap the river. It's not even close.

AJo Go All In · #7 05-29-2003, 02:50 AM

7-bet and fold to an 8-bet.

Buckshot · #8 05-29-2003, 09:40 AM

I didn't read everyone else's posts but online the betting stops heads-up after 4 bets. I would definitely cap the betting. If this were live, I would probably reraise again and if he reraises I think I would just call and expect to see quads.

~stephen

bobgreen · #9 06-01-2003, 08:21 PM

Counting possible card combinations that your opponent may hold is essential in close decisions. But when you factor in maniacal misplays, misreads, typos, and then Bayes logic, you should fourbet 99% of the time when there is no cap and 100% of the time when you are capping. In my experience, playing thus over a hundred trials, you'll lose maybe five times, almost certainly not as often as ten times, and win 90-95 times. It would be profitable (with the cap) if you win only 51 times.

Diplomat · #10 06-02-2003, 05:06 PM

Raise raise raise until daddy takes the t-bird a-waaayy...

Seriously, you have to cap. Flat calling the three-bet is so mathematically incorrect, it makes me want to puke, nevermind that you have no read on him whatsoever.

If it was a live game though, I'd probably go 5-7 bets, depending on the player, time of day, weather, etc. Anything more than 5 bets, 66 becomes more and more likely. Most players re-check the board and slow down with the non-nut full house when they get re-re-raised.

-Diplomat