Bubble call - was it right ????

[biscuitman]

I'm fairly new to MTT's so wanted to see what people thought of the following play in an Empire 5k tourney.

9 players left and 8 get paid. We 've only played about one or two orbit's at the final table but villain had been very aggressive with his big stack on the other table when we were hand for hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO (t3649)
Button (t4222)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t20604)</font>
BB (t4325)
UTG (t11080)
UTG+1 (t2700)
MP1 (t20874)
<font color="#C00000">Villain (t23555)</font>
MP3 (t6991)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t600, Villain calls t600, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t600, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t3000) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1500</font>, BB calls t1500, MP1 calls t1500, Villain then went all-in

Hero ????????

Obviously I called (see post title [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) but I'd like to see other peoples decisions and thoughts before I say mine.

Any thoughts ????

[bruce]

Well you flopped top two on a highly coordinated board. If I lead, which I am inclined to do I make a pot sized bet b/c of
the mulitple draws. I think this will help to clarify where you stand. It appears based on the action that you may be up against a flush or straight draw, perhaps a set, or even an overpair. I would be inclined to call the push.

Bruce

[autobet]

I think your call is fine. You are a big favorite to have the best hand here. Winning the hand will put you in great shape to finish in the top three and get the real money. There are times when it is worth bubbling out, and I think this is one of them.

That being said you should have folded before the flop. You are getting a good price, but are not interested tangling on the bubble with 8-4.

[Lloyd]

I would call and take a chance that I bubble for the opportunity to double up and pretty much knock out an aggressive player. Unless he has a set (which I don't think is likely the way he played the hand or the fact you have 2 pair) or As3s you're way ahead here.

[biscuitman]

[ QUOTE ]
That being said you should have folded before the flop. You are getting a good price, but are not interested tangling on the bubble with 8-4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take your point, but my feelings were that for 300 more and a big multiway pot this had the implied odds to be a stackbuster if the flop fell kindly (as it did)

[DVC Calif]

Well, you've got the odds to call if he has an overpair or on any draw, but if he is protecting his flopped set, you are waaaaaay behind.

It’s probably wrong, but I call here hoping to double up and run over the table.

[locutus2002]

I probably fold.

I don't think anyone leads out a single pair of 88 on this board. So others must put you on better than 88 to call. Unless villain is making a bold play, I think he has a set that doesn't want to see the turn.
You have a healthy stack.

[bruce]

What?

I play any two from his position. The implied odds are almost
exponential.

Bruce

[bruce]

With here having top two, a set of Eights or Fours, is unlikely
leaving a set of Threes as a possibility. With a draw heavy board calling seems to be the best play.

Bruce

[biscuitman]

I've put some numbers into pokerstove on this and came up with -

Board: 4s 3h 8s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 64.8228 % 64.82% 00.00% { 8h4d }
Hand 2: 35.1772 % 35.18% 00.00% { 88+, 44-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs }


With the guy just calling after one limper I'm not sure about AA-QQ or AKs. Without them it dosn't make much difference -

Board: 4s 3h 8s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.1588 % 61.16% 00.00% { 8h4d }
Hand 2: 38.8412 % 38.84% 00.00% { JJ-88, 44-33, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs }

I'm a good favourite over these ranges. My real dilemma is that there are three of us with big stacks so if I fold and coast or wait for another spot I should make at least top 5 no problems.

The question I guess is whether it is worth taking a 1:2 shot at becoming a big chip leader but busting out on the bubble a third of the time.

Having typed all this out I'm thinking its pretty much a no-brainer - insta-call. I'm probably gonna win the damn thing more often than I bust.

The guy had an overpair (9's) and hit his set on the river [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

At first I was sure I had made the right play but started to doubt it after thinking about the $$$ I should have won. Gotta ignore the results and keep on making the right plays.

Thanks for the input everyone.