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#31
06-20-2005, 03:42 PM
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Re: How many outs?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Well, three 10's are certainly good. [/ QUOTE ] Are you calling a ten an out? [/ QUOTE ] Ha, you know what I meant. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Others might not, though and the distinction needs to be made. 
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#32
06-20-2005, 03:51 PM
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Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
thanks for the good moderation.
i read the book atm and i was a bit surprised at that point too. in general i like the suggestions, but at some points i would like some more calls and raises. this is one of them. but after some more thoughts, a conservative calculation would be to count our hand for 3.5 - 4 outs and some reversed implied odds. probably a fold is a better play than most of us (me included) would think at the first moment. at least it is very marginal (either way). a raise doesn't look good to me btw. the chance that it fails plus the (strong) possibility of a 3-bet are good reasons against it.
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#33
06-20-2005, 03:54 PM
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Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
You mean someone with QJ is smiling? Because you're looking pretty good against AJ unless I misread something.
Someone could be smiling with TTT now too but I doubt it. Having a 2 SB less pot does make a bit of a difference. But I still call.
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#34
06-20-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
[ QUOTE ]
You mean someone with QJ is smiling? Because you're looking pretty good against AJ unless I misread something. Someone could be smiling with TTT now too but I doubt it. Having a 2 SB less pot does make a bit of a difference. But I still call. [/ QUOTE ] Crap...that's right. QJ...typo.
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#35
06-20-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes this a much more interesting hand because your opponents now have gutshots instead of OESD's.
I think that taking the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out of the picture increases the value of your King outs (from 0 to 2 say), but I think that it also increases the chances that MP1 is betting a TP hand (rather than a draw) which makes me start to wonder about your Ace outs. Then there's those pesky callers. With what kind of preflop-limp hand does a thinking player call a a 10-high, 2-suited flop bet with a preflop raiser yet to act? A made hand (TP) would almost certainly raise, so they're probably still drawing but collectively, they're drawing to almost half of the deck. Their possible hands include: overcards + gutshot, flush, gutshot + flush draw, OESD, Straight Flush draw, overcards + flush - did I miss any? So you've got position, but you're probably behind and your opponents have a lot of outs (i.e. any card between a 7 and a King/Ace). With the exception of the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I'm having a hard time thinking of a turn card that you'll be happy to see. Raising the flop will (possibly) push out the gutshot draws, but not the flush draws. TP is either calling or reraising (depending upon his kicker) so he's staying put and a mix draw (overcards + gutshot) is probably calling too. So I think that a raise is still wrong. If you call and hit an Ace, King or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], there's good chance that the turn will be bet and raised before it even gets to you so even when you hit a happy card, you'll be faced with an unhappy result. The pot's big, and has the potential to get huge, but you're begging for a second best hand here. You're going to have to fold this on the turn or the river the majority of the time anyway, fold now. (but it's a much closer decision than with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Change the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I'm (probably) raising the flop.
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#36
06-20-2005, 04:10 PM
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Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the good moderation. i read the book atm and i was a bit surprised at that point too. in general i like the suggestions, but at some points i would like some more calls and raises. this is one of them. but after some more thoughts, a conservative calculation would be to count our hand for 3.5 - 4 outs and some reversed implied odds. probably a fold is a better play than most of us (me included) would think at the first moment. at least it is very marginal (either way). a raise doesn't look good to me btw. the chance that it fails plus the (strong) possibility of a 3-bet are good reasons against it. [/ QUOTE ] These were my thoughts exactly. At first I hated it, then I started to think it was pretty close. I thought the raise was the worst choice.
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#37
06-20-2005, 04:12 PM
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Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
Hi QTip,
I don't have MLHP yet (but I'm going to buy it when I visit Vegas for the first time in my life in July, though [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]), but I regularly read the "Poker Quiz" on Cardplayer.com with examples from the book. In today's quiz there was a situation similar to those you've shown. I know they are not identical and there are some important differences, but maybe it adds something to the discussion. I post it here and I hope I'm not breaking any copywright laws: [ QUOTE ] Question A $30-$60 game. You are in the cutoff seat with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Everyone folds to the player on your right, who opens with a raise. You reraise, since he could be raising light, and you want to isolate him with position and a good playing hand. The button calls the three bets cold. Everyone folds to the preflop raiser, who calls. There is $320 in the pot and three players. The flop comes: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving you a backdoor nut flush-draw in addition to your two overcards. The original raiser checks and you check. The button bets. The preflop raiser calls. What do you do? Answer Fold. There is $380 in the pot and it costs you $30 to take off a card. A player who calls three bets cold and then bets a flop like this one will usually have K-K, Q-Q, J-J, or maybe an ace-king suited. Against K-K you have three outs, a 15-to-1 shot. Against Q-Q, you have six outs, a 7-to-1 shot. Against J-J, you have no outs other than backdoor diamonds with the board not pairing. Against ace-king suited, you are playing for a tie unless you make a backdoor flush. There is also a third player in the hand, who may have something that cripples your chances of improving. Finally, you may catch a card that gives you the best hand, but then get redrawn at the river. There are too many situations where you are playing with hardly any outs. In the other scenarios, where you do have a sufficient number of outs to play on, they are only to a pair, which may not hold up as the best hand anyway once all the board-cards are out. [/ QUOTE ] http://www.cardplayer.com/pokerquiz.php
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#38
06-20-2005, 04:22 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
1. What hands are his (thinking!) opponents holding that they will limp with preflop and call a flop bet on this board? Clearly, they all have a piece of this.
2. We don't have to assume that anyone has a heart (or hearts), but you certainly have to consider it don't you? 3. Why are you assuming that the table is passive? All we were told is that they were thinking players. There are many holdings that an agressive player(s) could have here where calling would be correct and normal. - Particularly if they are assuming that our (agressive) hero will be raising. 4. Do we have the best hand right now? What happens if the turn brings anything from an 8 to an ace? Is our hand still the best? 5. If you call the flop, what are the chances that you'll have to fold the turn anyway?
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#39
06-20-2005, 04:23 PM
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Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] thanks for the good moderation. i read the book atm and i was a bit surprised at that point too. in general i like the suggestions, but at some points i would like some more calls and raises. this is one of them. but after some more thoughts, a conservative calculation would be to count our hand for 3.5 - 4 outs and some reversed implied odds. probably a fold is a better play than most of us (me included) would think at the first moment. at least it is very marginal (either way). a raise doesn't look good to me btw. the chance that it fails plus the (strong) possibility of a 3-bet are good reasons against it. [/ QUOTE ] These were my thoughts exactly. At first I hated it, then I started to think it was pretty close. I thought the raise was the worst choice. [/ QUOTE ] Great thread. My first thought on reading the hand was to pop it. Getting 15-1 against a big field, if your BDFD comes through, you are probably going to reaaly whip someobody with a smaller flush. But after reading the thread, a thought that crossed my mind, is that the table is going to go nuts if a card like the K, Q, J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls. Probably end up paying mulitple bets to see the river... which yeah, means you are drawing to 5 or 6 outs as opposed to the comfortable 9. So even the BDFD is pretty tainted, because those times you make a real draw on the turn, you are locked in to the river. Also the fourth hart on the river, will probably kill all the action. So bascially you get to spend this entire hand putting in a crapload of chips as an underdog. Think I'll go buy this book.
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