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#12
06-20-2005, 02:34 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
While you probably still have 3 Ace outs your King outs are probably worthless. So what is a backdoor nut flush worth to you? Given your description of the other players, even with the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I would fold here.
Raising the flop accomplishes nothing. MP1 bet here knowing that you were the preflop raiser so he either doesn't care if you raise (e.g. he's got a big draw and he's building the pot) or he wants you to (e.g. he's got top pair and wants to reraise to thin the field). Calling the flop doesn't help much either: MP1 got two callers, so it seems to me that you aren't the only guy with a heart or two in your hand, so you probably have fewer flush outs than you think. If a heart comes on the turn, it may prove quite expensive to chase your draw to the river. Overall, your outs are either tainted or fewer than yout think. Fold here. 
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#13
06-20-2005, 02:37 PM
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Re: How many outs?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here. [/ QUOTE ] I vote for 6. [/ QUOTE ] Why 6? [/ QUOTE ] Overs = 4 outs BDFD = 1.5 outs BDSD = 0.5 outs
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#17
06-20-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
Raising is intuitively correct with a decent chance at a free card. This is a big pot and you have strong overs and some backdoor potential. If you insist on calculating outs, your aces are worth 2, kings are 1.5+ (Kh is a good card for you), and backdoor draws are at least 1.5. You don't have to worry so much about being trapped by turned/rivered draws because you have excellent position. Use it.
I only like calling if you're convinced that overcard outs are dead or too difficult to play for against this field. In any case, folding is silly.
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#18
06-20-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: How many outs?
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here. [/ QUOTE ] on the first flop, I'd say around 4 - 4.5: 1.5 - for the overcard As .5 - for the overcard Ks (since the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is dirty, and they might complete straights) 1.5 - for the BDFD .5-1 - for the BDSD (since the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are dirty)
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#19
06-20-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: How many outs?
[ QUOTE ]
With the J10 on the flop I would assume that reverse domination comes into play as A10 and KJ are hands that could possible be in play. [/ QUOTE ] Is there a 100% chance that one of these hands is out?
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#20
06-20-2005, 02:50 PM
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Re: How many outs?
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here. [/ QUOTE ] nut flush draw: 1.5 nut straight draw: 0.5 - 1 A (discounted for reverse domination): 1.5 - 2 K (discounted for reverse domination, straight making, and possibly dirty K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]): 0.5 Getting 15-1, you have to see another card, but the board is so draw-heavy that you're probably not the only one who'd like to see a free card. Since none of your overcard outs are clean, you'd really prefer to go runner-runner straight/flush and I'm not sure paying the extra flop bet to *maybe* buy a free river card is worth it. I would call the flop and fold the turn UI.
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