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#21
06-20-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: Odds of getting the same exact hand 5 times in a row.
I come here to ask a simple factual question and you all assume I'm lying. As if I have nothing better to do with my life than spread lies on an internet forum. You should have better faith in those that seriously post here. This did happen and I would like to thank the posters that rather then asked pointless actually gave me the answer I had come here to find.
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#22
06-20-2005, 01:16 PM
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Re: Odds of getting the same exact hand 5 times in a row.
[ QUOTE ]
I come here to ask a simple factual question and you all assume I'm lying. As if I have nothing better to do with my life than spread lies on an internet forum. You should have better faith in those that seriously post here. This did happen and I would like to thank the posters that rather then asked pointless actually gave me the answer I had come here to find. [/ QUOTE ] Dude, no one was rude or flamed you... just expressing some scepticism here and there. You really shouldn't expect otherwise. Personally, I think a software glitch was more likely the cause of what you saw (compared to it happening by chance alone).
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#23
06-23-2005, 02:47 AM
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Re: Odds of getting the same exact hand 5 times in a row.
I was playing in a tournament last week, and the first 2 flops of the tourney were exactly the same, suits and values (for real)(no, i'm serious)(lol). So to figure the probability of that happening you would go (and this is a question):
((3/52)(2/51)(1/50))^2= the probability?!??? (despite a year of college calculus, and a flirtation with majoring in math, I barely remember anything I learned back then--this forum looks like a nice place to relearn and learn, especially as it applies to poker)
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#24
06-23-2005, 04:10 AM
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Re: Odds of getting the same exact hand 5 times in a row.
The probability of any one specific flop if you don't know any hole cards is 1/(52c3). So two in a row would be (1/(52c3))^2 = .00000000247
But I'm assuming you knew what your hole cards were, so that means the number of possible flops is 50c3, not 52c3, so the probability would then be (1/(50c3))^2 = .000000002603, or 384,159,999-to-1. If you want really rare, the probability that you'll get the same board twice in a row (that's same flop, same turn, same river) is .00000000000000047055, or 2,125,136,240,639,999-to-1
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#26
06-23-2005, 08:01 AM
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Re: Odds of getting the same exact hand 5 times in a row.
Jordan Olsommer computed what you asked mathematically, ((3/52)(2/51)(1/50))^2, but not what you asked in words. Your formula gives the probability that the first two flops will be some specific hand, say 5c 9d Kh.
The chance that the first two flops will be the same as each other, without specifying what they are, is the square root of that (in other words, remove the square from your formula). That's 1/22,100.
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