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#13
06-19-2005, 11:10 PM
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Re: Feeling lost with A9s
Why cap the river?
The check raise by hero shows strength (2 pair or better). Against a maniac this is an easy cap, but against an unknown... How often will AK (or AQ) 3 bet this river? I am thinking less than 50 % and that is enough to make a cap an inferior play. 
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#14
06-19-2005, 11:37 PM
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Re: Feeling lost with A9s
I really like the line you suggested for the case where mp2 does not 3 bet the flop.
As for the cap on the river: I agree that AK is much more likely than AA. However I don't think that AK is as likely to 3 bet that river check raise as AA is. Mathematically, we need mp2 to 3 bet this river with TPGK a little more than half the time for a cap to be correct. Since a check raise on the river shows strength, I just don't think that an unknown will usually play TPGK so aggressively on the river.
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#15
06-19-2005, 11:50 PM
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Re: Feeling lost with A9s
[ QUOTE ]
As for the cap on the river: I agree that AK is much more likely than AA. However I don't think that AK is as likely to 3 bet that river check raise as AA is. Mathematically, we need mp2 to 3 bet this river with TPGK a little more than half the time for a cap to be correct. Since a check raise on the river shows strength, I just don't think that an unknown will usually play TPGK so aggressively on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I just wasn't liking a cap. I felt scared, I felt lost. So I wanted to just call. But your insight into the situation is excellent Mathieu. I haven't posted many hands. Is it customary to post results later? Or if ever?
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