#1
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Lay that down?
Would you lay that down here? No reads
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls. Turn: (9.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero ? |
#2
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Re: Lay that down?
[ QUOTE ]
Would you lay that down here? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but I quit. |
#3
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Re: Lay that down?
Immediately you're getting 16.75:2, but button is either going to call or reraise, in which case you'll be getting 16.75:2 or 18.75:3, respectively. 18.75:3 is 6.25:1. You have 4 outs (button could have KK here, though). I think UTG+1 clearly has a flush. With 4 outs you need 10.5:1 here, meaning you will need to make up 4+ bets on the river if you do improve. I think it is really close, but maybe the chance of a button KK pushes it to a fold. not sure.
i think if the turn were the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] i would call here. |
#4
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Re: Lay that down?
yes easy fold
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#5
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Re: Lay that down?
It's probably going to get capped behind you. If the board pairs, If you do improve, I'm not sure you can make up enough in implied odds to make this +EV. Occasionally you will improve and still lose to KK or 77.
So yes I'd fold, and I'd have a kitten nearby ready to kick when the 5 or 7 does fall. |
#6
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Re: Lay that down?
This looks very much like UTG+1 has made a flush draw.
I dont think his 3-bet into both you and the PF raiser is a bluff, given your combined flop and turn agression. If you made a full-house on the river, I think that you would still need to pick up another 4 bets or more to make your turn call profitable. (The turn pot was offering you ~ 8:1 to call, and the odds on hitting one of your 4 outs was ~ 10.5:1) So I would have folded on the turn, as I dont think that you would have been likely to make the extra bets required on the river, to make your call profitable, if you made your hand. |
#7
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Re: Lay that down?
Here's the rest of the hand
Turn: (9.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, UTG+1 calls. River: (18.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+1 calls $1 (All-In), Button calls. Final Pot: 20.75 BB Results below: UTG+1 has Kc 6c (one pair, kings). Button has Kd Ah (one pair, kings). Outcome: Button wins 20.75 BB. Do you think there was collusion involved? The guy who was all-in left after that and the other one stayed but didn't play like a maniac anymore... |
#8
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Re: Lay that down?
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the rest of the hand Turn: (9.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, UTG+1 calls. River: (18.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG+1 calls $1 (All-In), Button calls. Final Pot: 20.75 BB Results below: UTG+1 has Kc 6c (one pair, kings). Button has Kd Ah (one pair, kings). Outcome: Button wins 20.75 BB. Do you think there was collusion involved? The guy who was all-in left after that and the other one stayed but didn't play like a maniac anymore... [/ QUOTE ] Nah, doesn't look like collusion. Both villains had something going for them and were just a little too aggressive. UTG+1 flopped an OESD and hit his overcard pair. He was low on money, so decided to go for the limit all-in move. And while Button's play is a little overaggressive, it's not so absurd. AK raises preflop, raises what appears to be a little steal, caps for a free card -- yes, people think that -- and then hit his hand with the nut flush redraw on the turn. |
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