HOH II Hand Discussion

[A_PLUS]

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yup, its exactly what he's saying. infact that post was what crystalized the idea in my head.

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This is the first thing that came to my mind when I read the hand. Do, you think this hand falls neatly into the same category? I thought, the key idea in that hand, was that if he pushed preflop, he would only get called by AA or KK, so giving the villan a tight range, he is either winning a pot worth apx 10% of his stack, or getting called by a hand that dominates him. This makes a push very -ev (reverse implied odds). Im not so sure this hand (HOH)is in the same class. I think the range for a call will be wider, and you are not risking your tounament with the play. I do agree that the read on the villan (AQ? TT? in range) is of vital importance.

[MLG]

no, this hand is different. the stacks are much much shorter, so its still all-in or fold, but for different reasons.

[jgodin]

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I do agree that the read on the villan (AQ? TT? in range) is of vital importance.

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I agree. In fact, its the read of the villain and my perceived image that dictates this decision. In general though, I don't **** around UTG +1. Villain has to know I mean business. That being said, I think we could eliminate some possible holdings of the villain (In my mind, AQ is out. Of course, that is only in MY mind). This leaves me as either a dog or a major dog (unlikely but possible). So with little else to go on, I say fold.

As for the stop and go, certainly villain will THINK about folding JJ to a Qxx flop, but whether or not they will is open for debate. There are quite a few chips out there and, faced with the situation if I was the villain, I'd probably call.

[baronzeus]

I haven't read anything here or HOHII yet, but I often fold to a full table in this situation. There are better spots for me to take money from my opponents.

[MLG]

OK, lets look at 3 very different situations.

1. Me and Villain both have 20 BBx. I raise to 3x and he makes it 9x. It costs me 17x to put him all-in and I'm risking that to win the 13.5x in the pot and his remaining 11x which means im risking 17 to win 24.5 or almost 1.5:1. Clearly thats more than enough to push getting a good price (this is what Harrington was talking about).

2. We each have 35x. Now when I push my opponent will fold a lot here, maybe fold everything except AA/KK which means I win his 9x a high percentage of the time, and occasionally lose 32x (although I also occasionally win if he calls with QQ/JJ)

3. We each have 200x. When I win I still only win 9x, but when I'm called its almost always by AA/KK and I lose 200x. This is a situation where pushing would be very bad.



I can see times where I would call a reraise when I'm out of position when the stacks are in between 1 and 2. When I'm getting a bad price to set my opponent all-in, but I think he might put more money in even if i flop a pair. I don't think I would call a reraise with 200x because i will very rarely make more money when I flop a pair, unless I flop second best. Hands like that (win small/lose big) are very dangerous when deep stacked.

These are the 3 extreme cases, stuff in the middle gets more complicated.

[A_PLUS]

Very well said.

I do see why you could fold in this spot much better now. I still am not convinced that it is a fold yet. Given that this is a major tournament, there is a higher % of a chance that your opponent could think you are making a move and have pot committed himself with 99-QQ. I also think AQ is unlikely, but not out of the question for hands that he will call you with.

Also, if this is me. I push (or SNG). Being a major event, I am going to need every bit of F.E. I can muster, and also given that my skill level is most likely not above average for the field, I dont hate a little gambling here to accumulate a monster stack for the bubble.

[ptmusic]

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OK, lets look at 3 very different situations.

1. Me and Villain both have 20 BBx. I raise to 3x and he makes it 9x. It costs me 17x to put him all-in and I'm risking that to win the 13.5x in the pot and his remaining 11x which means im risking 17 to win 24.5 or almost 1.5:1. Clearly thats more than enough to push getting a good price (this is what Harrington was talking about).

2. We each have 35x. Now when I push my opponent will fold a lot here, maybe fold everything except AA/KK which means I win his 9x a high percentage of the time, and occasionally lose 32x (although I also occasionally win if he calls with QQ/JJ)

3. We each have 200x. When I win I still only win 9x, but when I'm called its almost always by AA/KK and I lose 200x. This is a situation where pushing would be very bad.



I can see times where I would call a reraise when I'm out of position when the stacks are in between 1 and 2. When I'm getting a bad price to set my opponent all-in, but I think he might put more money in even if i flop a pair. I don't think I would call a reraise with 200x because i will very rarely make more money when I flop a pair, unless I flop second best. Hands like that (win small/lose big) are very dangerous when deep stacked.

These are the 3 extreme cases, stuff in the middle gets more complicated.

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Thanks! Just to be clear, for your 3 examples, are you saying:

1. A clear push.

2. Push or Fold, but certainly do not call.

3. A clear fold.

-ptmusic

[Grisgra]

My thoughts . . . which are apparently completely different from what everyone else says -- call, then fold if the flop doesn't hit.
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Note: I suck at NL tournies, so if my reasoning is wrong here . . . well, I'm sure you'll tell me .

On p. 234-238 he describes the following situation:

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Middle stages of major tourney, 9 people at the table, Blinds are $150/$300, Ante $50 (starting pot is $900) and you have $37,000. You're in the top ten in chips. You pick up AKo, raise to $1200, and it's folded to the cutoff, who has $11,200 and raises to $5000. Folded back to you.

Do you fold, call, or raise?

Parts B and C of the question change the size of the opponent's stack to, respectively, to $16,200 and $8,200.
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Dan's answers to these questions, are, respectively, "Fold", "Call", and "Raise him all-in". These answers are based on reasoning that this is mostly an implied-odds question, given that eliminating one more opponent isn't a big deal. Also, we have no desire to engage in high-stakes even-money bets.

I have no problem with his reasoning for "B" and "C", but here's what he says about the initial question (short stack has $11,200, or $6,200 left).

"Calling is the worst option here. With AK, you'd usually prefer to make an all-or-nothing decision, since that enables you to see all five cards and thus get the most value for your two high cards. That's especially true when you're out of position and your opponent is on a short stack and mostly committed to the pot already. He will usually put you all-in after the flop, and since you know that, you need to make your decision now whether or not to play the hand for his full stack . . . "

He goes on to reason that a fair approximation to the villain's hand here is that you're up against a pair lower than kings. Raising him all-in risks $10,000 to win a total of $13,300, giving you 1.33-to-1 odds. Because you're about a 1.3-to-1 dog against a pocket pair, risking 30% of your stack for an even EV proposition is unwise. So fold.

BUT . . . here's what he says regarding scenario B, in which your opponent isn't as shortstacked, he has $16,200 at the beginning of the hand.

"If you call, you're getting a little less than 2-to-1 odds on your bet (the pot is $7,100 and you need to put in $3,800 to call" and the odds of hitting an ace or king are a little better than 30%, so your chances of hitting are a little less than 2-1. Do your implied odds if you hit your hand compensate? Probably. Your opponent might decide he's done with the hand if an ace or king flops, but then again he might not. I'd call here against anyone but a super-tight player."

Bwah?!?!!!

Let's say we just call in the original situation with AKo, and decide we will fold to the shortstack's all-in if we don't flop an ace or king. We're still getting those 2-1 initial odds, but our implied odds are even better than they were before, because our opponent is even more likely to put in $$ with the worst hand. Even if shortstack-boy folds if an ace flops, and goes all-in 100% of the time if a king flops, then we lose that $3,800 70% of the time, but win $7,100 about 15% of the time and $13,300 15% of the time (roughly). EV looks to be about +$400, and we're risking only 10% of our stack. And if the shortstack is sometimes likely to go all-in even if an ace flops (certainly possible given just how little money he has left), our EV is even better.

What am I missing? It seems to me that the assumption that we want to go all-in preflop with AKo against the short stack is a bad one, because it rules out a call that is +EV. If calling isn't +EV against this guy, why is it +EV against the guy with the $16,200 stack, who is much less likely to push another six grand into the pot with a losing hand?

[RoyalLance]

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If calling isn't +EV against this guy, why is it +EV against the guy with the $16,200 stack, who is much less likely to push another six grand into the pot with a losing hand?

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Sorry, I have to agree with Dan. Calling a raise who from the player is pot committed is a very weak play, compared to calling a the same raise from the player who has more chips you can win if you hit a hand and fold if you don't and he bets at you. Pushing on any of the two hands can be very costly (though the latter is much more dangerous) to your big stack.

[Grisgra]

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If calling isn't +EV against this guy, why is it +EV against the guy with the $16,200 stack, who is much less likely to push another six grand into the pot with a losing hand?

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Sorry, I have to agree with Dan. Calling a raise who from the player is pot committed is a very weak play, compared to calling a the same raise from the player who has more chips you can win if you hit a hand and fold if you don't and he bets at you. Pushing on any of the two hands can be very costly (though the latter is much more dangerous) to your big stack.

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I agree it *sounds* weak. Now explain to me, EV-wise, why it *is* weak. Looks to me like our EV is slightly better while the chips we put at risk is only 10% of our stack instead of 30%.